HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBTop 1
    TB 0@LAA 0
    -4.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.5pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA35.4 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 84
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5NYM
NYM

NYM

68-60

12
7
ATL

ATL

58-70

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
40,076 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

NYM

league avg

ATL

ATL

.663

OPS

.715

▶

.751

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.10

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 12 · ATL 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM02230023012
ATL0011000237

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 12–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. WentzATL−54.8pp
  2. 2B. BatyNYM+35.0pp
  3. 3F. LindorNYM+31.0pp

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

2.333OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorSS
.2655230011
J. SotoLF
.2514234120
S. MarteRF
.2795011001
P. Alonso1B
.2626110000
M. Vientos1B
.2325111003
B. Baty3B
.2496340000
T. TaylorCF
.2065131000
C. MullinsCF
.2384132010
H. SengerC
.1855123000
- R. MauricioSS
.2281000000
Team46122112145

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. McLeanSP
7.04220794
R. GarrettRP
1.03220128
R. HelsleyRP
1.03331024
Team9.0107718146

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarLF
.2604134000
M. Olson1B
.2685000003
R. Acuna Jr.RF
.3054122101
M. Harris IICF
.2554000002
M. OzunaDH
.2343100011
D. BaldwinC
.2774010000
O. Albies2B
.2294110000
N. Alvarez Jr.SS
.2594220000
N. AllenSS
.2242000001
- V. BrujanSS
.3082111000
Team367107118

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. WentzRP
3.19662379
E. FeddeSP
4.111662193
D. DoddRP
1.11000121
Team9.021121245193

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • N. McLean
    94 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      30%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.2 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • UN
      1%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      25%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      21%·86.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      7%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      42%·99.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·82.1 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • E. Fedde
    93 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      31%·90.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.9 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.8 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Wentz
    79 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·84.4 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.0 mph·30% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      62%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

21

Hits

10

12

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 4-2

Jun 17NYMNYM4@ATLATL5
Jun 18NYMNYM0@ATLATL5
Jun 19NYMNYM1@ATLATL7
Aug 22NYMNYM12@ATLATL7today
Aug 23NYMNYM9@ATLATL2
Aug 24NYMNYM3@ATLATL4

Season series

ATL leads series 7-4

Jun 17NYMNYM4@ATLATL5
Jun 18NYMNYM0@ATLATL5
Jun 19NYMNYM1@ATLATL7
Jun 23ATLATL3@NYMNYM2
Jun 24ATLATL7@NYMNYM4
Jun 25ATLATL3@NYMNYM7
Jun 26ATLATL0@NYMNYM4
Aug 12ATLATL5@NYMNYM13
Aug 13ATLATL11@NYMNYM6
Aug 14ATLATL4@NYMNYM3
Aug 22NYMNYM12@ATLATL7today
Aug 23NYMNYM9@ATLATL2
Aug 24NYMNYM3@ATLATL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 3rd Inning

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Wentz

J. Wentz

RP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat ATL 12-7.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 50% WP

Senger · singled to left, Baty scored, Taylor to third.

NYMTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+17pp→ 81% WP

Mullins · tripled to center, Alonso scored and Baty scored.

NYMTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 79% WP

Lindor · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM02230023012
ATL0011000237

Period scoring

NYM won 5 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Senger 1

2
1

Inn 3

Mullins 2

Profar 1

3
1

Inn 4

Marte 1

Acu 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Soto 2

3
2

Inn 8

Senger 2

Profar 1

0
3

Inn 9

Profar 2

NYM
ATL

Play-by-play · 656 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  3. B9

    Olson grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  5. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Matt Olson

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  6. B9

    ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  7. B9

    Profar doubled to right, Albies scored and Bruján scored.

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  13. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jurickson Profar

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 7

  14. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  15. B9

    Bruján singled to left, Ozuna scored, Albies to third.

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  19. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Vidal Brujan

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 5

  20. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  21. B9

    Alvarez Jr. flied out to left.

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  24. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Nacho Alvarez Jr.

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  25. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  26. B9

    Albies doubled to right, Ozuna to third.

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

  30. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    NYM 12·ATL 4

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

12

Runs

7

21

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

32

TB

17

1

HR

1

4

BB

1

5

K

8

25

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891

Player projections

ATL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.1low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.2± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.1± 3.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    2.1± 3.6high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • JR RitchieATL
    2.6± 2.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.6± 3.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.8%

    P(ATL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.3%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.