MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

46-62

1211

CIN

57-53

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

27,169 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
62.9%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.4%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

CIN

.750

OPS

◀

.715

.710

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.07

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.77

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 12 · CIN 11 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ATL	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	8	0	1	12
CIN	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	11

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.233	6	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.260	6	2	1	1	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.263	6	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.235	2	3	1	1	0	3	0
O. Albies2B	.227	6	2	4	2	0	0	0
S. MurphyC	.233	2	1	2	1	0	3	0
M. Harris IICF	.233	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.249	5	1	1	2	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.226	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BaldwinC	.279	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. WilliamsSS	.136	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
Team		43	12	13	11	0	6	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.233

.260

.263

.235

.227

.233

.233

.249

.226

.279

.136

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. CarrascoRP	6.0	7	3	3	2	5	95
T. KinleyRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	19
D. DunningRP	0.0	5	5	5	0	0	18
D. LeeRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	0	21
P. JohnsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	10.0	17	11	11	4	8	174

Player

6.0

1.0

0.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

10.0

174

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. McLain2B	.221	6	1	3	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.285	6	2	3	0	0	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.285	6	2	3	3	1	0	2
A. HaysLF	.276	5	1	1	1	0	1	1
S. SteerLF	.242	5	1	1	3	1	1	1
J. FraleyRF	.252	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
T. StephensonC	.240	4	1	2	1	0	1	2
W. BensonRF	.217	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.200	5	1	1	3	1	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. LuxLF	.268	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		47	11	17	11	3	4	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. AbbottSP	5.1	5	3	2	5	1	96
G. AshcraftRP	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	25
S. MollRP	0.1	3	4	4	0	1	12
L. RichardsonRP	0.0	3	2	2	1	0	18
B. SuterRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	13
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	0	12
Team	10.0	13	12	10	6	5	176

Team

ATL

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.