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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAA
LAA

LAA

62-69

4
0
TEX

TEX

66-67

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
22,949 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 4 · TEX 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA1001010014
TEX0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 97
    94
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    293
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 96
    152
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    40
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 5-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

2B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA62-69
4
0
TEX66-67
LAA62-69·TEX66-67
LAA

LAA

62-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-44121112
SPRINT27.148
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000002
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22200020
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000012
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
2-44022000
SPRINT257
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44111102
SPRINT27.251
N. KavadasN. Kavadas★1B
1-44010002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-44000001
Team7-33334742412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
5.2400160
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0100010
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
0.1000010
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0000020
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000000
Team9.05001100
TEX

TEX

66-67

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-22010010
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000002
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-22010001
SPRINT25.716
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
0-22000001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33010002
SPRINT25.920
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33000000
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-22000001
C. FreemanC. Freeman3B
0-22000000
E. DuranE. Duran2B
0-11000000
M. HelmanM. HelmanCF
0-11000001
Team5-30300500110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.0322271
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
1.0111110
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100020
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
2.0211121
Team9.07444122

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

4

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 5-1

Apr 16LAALAA0@TEXTEX4
Apr 17LAALAA1@TEXTEX3
Apr 18LAALAA3@TEXTEX5
Aug 26LAALAA4@TEXTEX0today
Aug 27LAALAA3@TEXTEX7
Aug 28LAALAA3@TEXTEX20

Season series

TEX leads series 6-5

Apr 16LAALAA0@TEXTEX4
Apr 17LAALAA1@TEXTEX3
Apr 18LAALAA3@TEXTEX5
Jul 8TEXTEX5@LAALAA6
Jul 9TEXTEX13@LAALAA1
Jul 10TEXTEX8@LAALAA11
Jul 11TEXTEX11@LAALAA4
Jul 29TEXTEX4@LAALAA6
Jul 30TEXTEX5@LAALAA8
Jul 31TEXTEX6@LAALAA3
Aug 26LAALAA4@TEXTEX0today
Aug 27LAALAA3@TEXTEX7
Aug 28LAALAA3@TEXTEX20

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 4th Inning

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Smith

J. Smith

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAA beat TEX 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 51% WP

Heim · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Jung out at second.

LAATop 4th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 65% WP

d'Arnaud singled to center, Ward scored, d'Arnaud to second, Rengifo to third.

LAATop 6th Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 83% WP

d'Arnaud doubled to right, Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA1001010014
TEX0000000000

Period scoring

LAA won 4 · TEX won 0

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

O'Hoppe 1

LAA
TEX

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  2. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  3. B9

    A. García flied out to shortstop.

    · ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  7. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  8. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  9. B9

    Freeman flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  15. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Cody Freeman

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  16. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  17. B9

    Seager flied out to center.

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  20. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Corey Seager

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  21. B9

    Jansen relieved Burke

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  24. T9

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  25. T9

    Neto struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

  30. T9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAA 4·TEX 0

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

4

Runs

0

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

14

TB

5

2

HR

0

4

BB

1

12

K

10

11

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.2%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.