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FINAL+6NYM
SF

SF

55-56

6
12
NYM

NYM

63-48

Citi Field · Queens, New York
43,455 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

SF 6 · NYM 12 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0121000026
NYM3002024112

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off San Francisco Giants, 12–6. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF55-56
6
12
NYM63-48
SF55-56·NYM63-48
SF

SF

55-56

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-55010000
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010002
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-55112103
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-22100020
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44112100
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-44120000
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.148
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
0-33000011
G. McCrayG. McCray★CF
2-44121001
L. MatosL. MatosRF
0-11000000
C. KossC. Koss2B
0-11000001
Team10-36366105238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
3.1455341
M. GageM. GageRP
1.2200010
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.0322100
T. BeckT. BeckRP
2.0455110
Team8.0131212561
NYM

NYM

63-48

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-44233001
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
3-44134011
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-55010001
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44223110
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-55011000
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-44100011
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44210001
SPRINT27.662
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-44110001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-22310020
SPRINT26.735
Team13-3636121311156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
4.0544341
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.1000010
G. SotoG. SotoRP
0.2100020
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0100000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0222011
Team9.01066382

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • K. Teng
    67 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      34%·82.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.8 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Beck
    44 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.6 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    32 pitches·16% CSW
    • CH
      34%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      34%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      3%·80.8 mph·— whiff
  • M. Gage
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      12%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.3 mph·50% whiff

NYM

  • K. Senga
    71 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.0 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FO
      21%·81.7 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      8%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      1%·64.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    31 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      35%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      29%·98.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      24%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      88%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·73.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      44%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      38%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·85.9 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

6

Runs

12

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12today
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Season series

NYM lead series 4-1

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3
Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12today
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 4th Inning

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

K. Teng

K. Teng

RP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 12-6.

Win probability

NYM vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+13pp→ 90% WP

Alonso · homered to center (428 feet), Nimmo scored and Lindor scored.

SFTop 3rd Inning · 3-3
+14pp→ 28% WP

Smith · homered to right (366 feet), Chapman scored.

NYMBottom 4th Inning · 4-4
+17pp→ 75% WP

Nimmo · singled to right, Mullins scored, Baty to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0121000026
NYM30020241—12

Period scoring

SF won 2 · NYM won 5

0
3

Inn 1

Alonso 3

1
0

Inn 2

McCray 1

2
0

Inn 3

Smith 2

1
2

Inn 4

McCray 1

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Nimmo 1

0
4

Inn 7

Lindor 2

0
1

Inn 8

McNeil 1

2

Inn 9

Adames 2

SF
NYM

Play-by-play · 632 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  2. T9

    Koss struck out looking.

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  8. T9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Christian Koss

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  9. T9

    ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  10. T9

    Adames homered to center (402 feet), McCray scored.

    · ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  17. T9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Willy Adames

    · ·

    SF 6·NYM 12

  18. T9

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  19. T9

    Matos fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  24. T9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Luis Matos

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  25. T9

    Matos hit for Devers

    ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  26. T9

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  27. T9

    Ramos fouled out to first.

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  28. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  29. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 12

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

6

Runs

12

10

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

21

TB

18

2

HR

1

3

BB

5

8

K

6

18

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    2612
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    292
    6(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    99
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 93
    246
    19(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 93
    2811
    21(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 92
    296
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs