HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1LAD
ARI

ARI

68-70

4
5
LAD

LAD

78-59

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
51,803 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

ARI

league avg

LAD

LAD

.691

OPS

.717

▶

.788

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.346

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.19

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.37

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

ARI 4 · LAD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0001000304
LAD2001100015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. MarteARI+38.5pp
  2. 2C. CarrollARI+35.3pp
  3. 3W. SmithLAD+32.5pp

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoSS
.2854110001
K. Marte2B
.2914220001
C. CarrollRF
.2584123100
B. Alexander3B
.2373000013
A. Del CastilloDH
.2593021000
T. Locklear1B
.1554000003
A. ThomasCF
.2504000001
J. LawlarLF
.0004000002
J. McCarthyCF
.1992000000
- L. Gurriel Jr.LF
.2491000000
- I. Vargas1B
.2501000000
- G. MorenoC
.2770000000
Team344741111

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. PfaadtRP
4.18441594
B. GarciaRP
2.21001335
J. CurtissRP
1.01110221
Team8.01055210150

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2764110001
M. BettsSS
.2504220001
F. Freeman1B
.3003011010
A. PagesCF
.2754012001
M. ConfortoDH
.1901000010
A. CallLF
.2444100002
A. Freeland2B
.2084020002
D. RushingC
.1843000002
M. RojasSS
.2563021001
- E. Hernández1B
.2002000000
- W. SmithC
.2931111100
Team3351051210

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Y. YamamotoSP
7.041101098
T. ScottRP
1.03331022
B. TreinenRP
1.0000018
Team9.0744111128

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    94 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      29%·90.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      11%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.7 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    35 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      46%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.0 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      62%·96.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      33%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.4 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • Y. Yamamoto
    98 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      27%·96.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      27%·92.3 mph·73% whiff
    • CU
      20%·77.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.9 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Scott
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      63%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5today

Season series

Series tied 5-5

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5today
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 9th Inning

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 5-4. Smith's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

LAD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 88% WP

Freeman · doubled to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.

ARITop 8th Inning · 4-4
+29pp→ 35% WP

Carroll · homered to left center (380 feet), Perdomo scored and Marte scored.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+32pp→ 100% WP

Smith · homered to left center (422 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0001000304
LAD2001100015

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · LAD won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Castillo 1

Rojas 1

0
1

Inn 5

Pages 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Carroll 3

0
1

Inn 9

Smith 1

ARI
LAD

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  2. B9

    Smith homered to left center (422 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

    +33pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  5. B9

    John Curtiss pitches to Will Smith

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  6. B9

    Smith hit for Rushing

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  7. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  8. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  9. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  10. T9

    Lawlar struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  16. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Jordan Lawlar

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  17. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  18. T9

    Thomas flied out to right.

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

    +5pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  21. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  22. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  23. T9

    Locklear grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

    +6pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  25. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Tyler Locklear

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  26. T9

    Treinen relieved Scott

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  29. B8

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

  30. B8

    Freeland struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 4

    −4pp

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

10

TB

14

1

HR

1

1

BB

2

11

K

10

7

LOB

14

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.4± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.7± 3.9low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.4± 3.1low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    1.1± 0.9low
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.9± 1.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Max MuncyLAD
    2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    0.9± 1.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Kyle TuckerLAD
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.0%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.