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  • MLBTop 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
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    SD 0@WSH 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -5.6ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    KC 0@TEX 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ARI
ARI

ARI

59-62

6
4
TEX

TEX

61-61

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
26,021 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0010100046
TEX1002000104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 99
    91
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 98
    35
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    1510
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    37
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 97
    33
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 97
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Jake Burger

Jake Burger

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI59-62
6
4
TEX61-61
ARI59-62·TEX61-61
ARI

ARI

59-62

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-33311121
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
4-55144100
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-55010001
SPRINT29.496
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-33010000
SPRINT26.326
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
0-44000002
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44010001
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000002
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-44111101
SPRINT25.29
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33100001
Team9-3535696339
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
5.0533211
J. BurgosJ. BurgosRP
1.0000100
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.0000010
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0211100
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0000000
Team9.0744421
TEX

TEX

61-61

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-33110000
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-55000000
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000010
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
2-44121000
SPRINT28.175
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-44222101
SPRINT2744
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33011010
SPRINT25.920
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33000010
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-33000010
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-22000001
Team7-3535474142
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
6.0722151
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
1.0000010
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.2000100
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.1244132
Team9.0966393

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    98 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.6 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      15%·80.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      2%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.2 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      38%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Burgos
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      39%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      62%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      38%·78.3 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Saalfrank
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CU
      45%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·88.7 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • M. Kelly
    99 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      30%·91.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.2 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.0 mph·60% whiff
  • P. Maton
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      33%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      29%·75.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Curvelo
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.4 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Milner
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      45%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

6

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 12ARIARI6@TEXTEX7
Aug 13ARIARI3@TEXTEX2
Aug 13ARIARI6@TEXTEX4today

Season series

ARI leads series 2-1

Aug 12ARIARI6@TEXTEX7
Aug 13ARIARI3@TEXTEX2
Aug 13ARIARI6@TEXTEX4today
Sep 2TEXTEX7@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX3@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX0@ARIARI2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 77pp · Top 9th Inning

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
J. Burger

J. Burger

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat TEX 6-4. Marte's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (77pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 40% WP

Marte · singled to left, Perdomo scored.

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+14pp→ 83% WP

Burger · homered to left center (434 feet), Carter scored.

ARITop 9th Inning · 6-4
+77pp→ 90% WP

Marte · homered to right center (413 feet), Alexander scored and Perdomo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0010100046
TEX1002000104

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · TEX won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Carter 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Marte 1

0
2

Inn 4

Burger 2

1
0

Inn 5

Perdomo 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Jung 1

4
0

Inn 9

Marte 3

ARI
TEX

Play-by-play · 603 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  3. B9

    Semien flied out to left.

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  9. B9

    Andrew Saalfrank pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  10. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  11. B9

    Seager grounded out to second.

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

    −4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  14. B9

    Andrew Saalfrank pitches to Corey Seager

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  15. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  16. B9

    Haggerty flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

    −6pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  21. B9

    Andrew Saalfrank pitches to Sam Haggerty

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  22. B9

    Saalfrank relieved Curtiss

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  25. T9

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  26. T9

    Carroll lined out to right.

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

    +0.6pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  29. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

  30. T9

    ·

    ARI 6·TEX 4

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

6

Runs

4

9

Hits

7

2

Errors

0

18

TB

12

3

HR

1

3

BB

4

9

K

2

5

LOB

13

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.7%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175