MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3KC

48-52

MIA

46-52

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

18,219 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
56.8%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.9%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.8± 1.7medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.5± 0.8high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.1± 1.6high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.9high
Liam HicksMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIA

.695

OPS

.717

.701

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.321

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.22

4.51

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.17

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 7 · MIA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	1	0	7
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.246	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.289	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.267	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Garcia3B	.292	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.251	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.146	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.400	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.263	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.250	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. RaveRF	.189	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	9	7	1	3	4

Player

.246

.289

.267

.292

.251

.146

.400

.263

.250

.189

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	5.0	3	0	0	1	2	66
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
S. LongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
A. HoffmannRP	0.2	2	4	0	2	0	26
C. EstevezRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	7	4	0	4	6	140

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.289	5	1	1	2	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.244	5	0	2	2	0	0	2
O. LopezSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
E. Wagaman1B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.321	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. MyersCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.258	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. Sanoja3B	.238	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.274	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	7	4	0	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	5.0	6	6	4	1	1	69
C. GibsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	23
V. BellozoRP	3.0	2	1	1	1	2	48
Team	9.0	9	7	5	3	4	140

Team

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.