• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +39.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    KC 4@TEX 3
    -50.7ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 7
    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -52.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 4@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
  • MLBEnd 8
    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    MIA 1@NYM 5
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
  • WNBAEnd of 1st
    LA 18@CON 20
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3TEX
NYY

NYY

60-53

5
8
TEX

TEX

59-55

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
33,320 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

NYY 5 · TEX 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
NYY12020000005
TEX04000000138

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off New York Yankees, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
NYY60-53
5
8
TEX59-55
NYY60-53·TEX59-55
NYY

NYY

60-53

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
3-55331101
SPRINT24.74
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
2-33021001
SPRINT28.278
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-44021010
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-33112121
SPRINT23.81
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-11000000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010011
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-44000011
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-55110001
SPRINT25.18
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33000001
T. GrishamT. GrishamCF
0-22000000
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
0-44000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
0-11000000
Team10-39395105258
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
5.0844370
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000010
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000010
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0111011
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2132111
Team9.210874122
TEX

TEX

59-55

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
1-44010001
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-55100001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-55000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-55000004
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-33220021
SPRINT2872
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-44223111
SPRINT25.920
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44111001
SPRINT27.354
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-22110010
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
2-33022001
SPRINT28.891
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11000001
K. HigashiokaK. HigashiokaC
0-11000000
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
1-11111100
SPRINT25.716
Team10-383881072412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
3.0633331
J. GrayJ. GrayRP
5.0422051
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
1.0000100
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000100
Team10.01055582

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • D. Williams
    29 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      48%·82.5 mph·29% whiff
  • C. Doval
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      41%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      41%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • UN
      6%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      38%·88.1 mph·50% whiff

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

5

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Aug 5NYYNYY5@TEXTEX8today
Aug 6NYYNYY0@TEXTEX2
Aug 6NYYNYY3@TEXTEX2

Season series

NYY lead series 3-1

May 20TEXTEX2@NYYNYY5
May 21TEXTEX3@NYYNYY4
May 22TEXTEX0@NYYNYY1
Aug 5NYYNYY5@TEXTEX8today
Aug 6NYYNYY0@TEXTEX2
Aug 6NYYNYY3@TEXTEX2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 9th Inning

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Gray

J. Gray

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

TEX beat NYY 8-5. Pederson's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Win probability

TEX vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 4th Inning · 5-4
+25pp→ 65% WP

Stanton · homered to center (427 feet), Goldschmidt scored.

TEXBottom 9th Inning · 5-5
+49pp→ 59% WP

Pederson · homered to right (408 feet).

TEXBottom 10th Inning · 5-8
+39pp→ 100% WP

Jung · homered to left center (401 feet), Seager scored and Langford scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
NYY12020000005
TEX04000000138

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · TEX won 3

1
0

Inn 1

2
4

Inn 2

Rosario 1

Duran 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Stanton 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Pederson 1

0
3

Inn 10

Jung 3

NYY
TEX

Play-by-play · 673 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    NYY 5·TEX 8

  2. B10

    Jung homered to left center (401 feet), Seager scored and Langford scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 8

    +39pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 8

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  6. B10

    Jake Bird pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 8

  7. B10

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  8. B10

    Langford intentionally walked.

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  13. B10

    Jake Bird pitches to Wyatt Langford

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  14. B10

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  15. B10

    A. García grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

    −10pp

  16. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  20. B10

    Jake Bird pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  21. B10

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  22. B10

    Semien struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

    +17pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  24. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  25. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  26. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  27. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  28. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  29. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

  30. B10

    Jake Bird pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    NYY 5·TEX 5

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

5

Runs

8

10

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

19

TB

17

2

HR

2

5

BB

4

8

K

12

24

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    54.7%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.5%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    103
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    67
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 94
    188
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 94
    284
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    187
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs