MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6HOU

HOU

63-50

MIA

55-56

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

10,827 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.3± 3.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 0.8high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.5± 1.3high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.6± 2.6high
Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 1.8high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.0± 2.1high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.7± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

MIA

.729

OPS

◀

.717

.706

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.56

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

4.91

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.07

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 8 · MIA 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	2	0	8
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.324	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. SanchezRF	.267	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.279	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.235	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.236	4	1	0	1	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.268	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.255	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. SmithRF	.255	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. McCormickLF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. DubonSS	.265	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		38	8	11	8	0	1	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.324

.267

.279

.235

.236

.268

.255

.233

.255

.227

.265

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. AlexanderRP	6.0	3	0	0	1	6	97
B. KingRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	26
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
H. NerisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	10	156

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

156

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.295	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.242	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. HicksC	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
O. LopezSS	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. JohnstonRF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. Pauley3B	.220	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.251	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. HillRF	.217	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.232	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		34	2	7	2	2	2	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. AlcantaraSP	7.0	9	6	6	1	5	100
C. GibsonRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	32
Team	9.0	11	8	8	1	7	132

Team

HOU

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.