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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4HOU
HOU

HOU

64-50

7
3
MIA

MIA

55-57

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
12,186 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 7 · MIA 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2002300007
MIA0100101003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 100
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 98
    180
    6(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 98
    103
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 97
    184
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 97
    188
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.0%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.6%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU64-50
7
3
MIA55-57
HOU64-50·MIA55-57
HOU

HOU

64-50

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55012001
SPRINT28.483
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-55120000
SPRINT25.818
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-44122110
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-44120011
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-55110001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44113100
SPRINT25.513
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44010000
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44110000
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33110010
Team12-38387127233
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OkertS. Okert★RP
1.2111020
K. OrtK. OrtRP
0.1100100
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
5.0322152
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000100
J. HaderJ. HaderRP
1.0000120
Team9.0533492
MIA

MIA

55-57

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000003
SPRINT27.354
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-33000011
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000000
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.483
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000002
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-22111121
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-22122110
SPRINT27.765
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-44000000
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000001
Team5-3232353249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. QuantrillC. Quantrill★RP
4.1977322
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
3.2200000
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
1.0100010
Team9.01277332

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • A. Blubaugh
    70 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.6 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.5 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.1 mph·38% whiff
  • S. Okert
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      62%·80.2 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      38%·91.2 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Hader
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      58%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      42%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • K. Ort
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.4 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • C. Quantrill
    81 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      23%·94.3 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.1 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    44 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      43%·84.3 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      27%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·74.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Simpson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      46%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

5

7

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Aug 4HOUHOU8@MIAMIA2
Aug 5HOUHOU7@MIAMIA3today
Aug 6HOUHOU4@MIAMIA6

Season series

HOU leads series 2-0

Aug 4HOUHOU8@MIAMIA2
Aug 5HOUHOU7@MIAMIA3today
Aug 6HOUHOU4@MIAMIA6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 4th Inning

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

A. Blubaugh

A. Blubaugh

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Quantrill

C. Quantrill

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 7 ER · 9 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat MIA 7-3. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 4th inning (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 72% WP

Altuve · homered to left (374 feet), Sánchez scored.

MIABottom 2nd Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 38% WP

Marsee · singled to left, Hernández scored, Wagaman to second.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+18pp→ 84% WP

Peña tripled to right, Dubón scored and Urías scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2002300007
MIA0100101003

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · MIA won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Altuve 2

0
1

Inn 2

Marsee 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

3
1

Inn 5

Diaz 3

Marsee 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Wagaman 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
MIA

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  3. B9

    Sanoja grounded out to third.

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  9. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Javier Sanoja

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  10. B9

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  11. B9

    Myers struck out looking.

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  16. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Dane Myers

    · ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  17. B9

    Myers hit for Marsee

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  18. B9

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  19. B9

    Wagaman walked.

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

    +0.9pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  25. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Eric Wagaman

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  26. B9

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  27. B9

    Hicks struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

    −0.9pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·MIA 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

7

Runs

3

12

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

23

TB

12

2

HR

2

3

BB

4

3

K

9

12

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872