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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2DET
DET

DET

65-47

7
5
PHI

PHI

62-48

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
44,689 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 7 · PHI 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0020003207
PHI0000003205

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

3B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET65-47
7
5
PHI62-48
DET65-47·PHI62-48
DET

DET

65-47

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
3-55131100
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-55121101
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-33111102
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-55000001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000002
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
3-44030001
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33100012
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33200011
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-44124101
SPRINT27.251
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
1-22010001
Team12-383871274212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.05330101
W. VestW. VestRP
0.2322021
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.1000010
Team9.08550132
PHI

PHI

62-48

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000002
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000003
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
3-44232100
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44121001
SPRINT28.381
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44112101
SPRINT27.148
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000002
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-44000003
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-22010000
B. StottB. Stott2B
0-11000000
B. MarshB. MarshLF
1-11110000
SPRINT28.175
Team8-35355852013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
6.09430103
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0211001
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
0.2122210
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.1000000
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0000010
Team9.012762124

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    98 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      33%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      16%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
  • W. Vest
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      39%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.1 mph·50% whiff

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    98 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·87.4 mph·75% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      34%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      21%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      35%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      63%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      25%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romano
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      100%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Aug 1DETDET4@PHIPHI5
Aug 2DETDET7@PHIPHI5today
Aug 3DETDET0@PHIPHI2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 1DETDET4@PHIPHI5
Aug 2DETDET7@PHIPHI5today
Aug 3DETDET0@PHIPHI2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

DETDET
C. Keith

C. Keith

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

7.0 IP · 10 K · 3 ER · 5 H

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.0 IP · 10 K · 3 ER · 9 H

How it ended

DET beat PHI 7-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 61% WP

Keith · homered to right (396 feet).

DETTop 7th Inning · 4-0
+12pp→ 94% WP

Báez homered to left center (405 feet), Dingler scored.

DETTop 8th Inning · 7-3
+12pp→ 97% WP

Báez tripled to left, McKinstry scored and Dingler scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0020003207
PHI0000003205

Period scoring

DET won 1 · PHI won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Keith 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
3

Inn 7

Torres 1

Castellanos 2

2
2

Inn 8

Harper 2

0
0

Inn 9

DET
PHI

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 7·PHI 5

  2. B9

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  3. B9

    Stott flied out to left.

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  8. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Bryson Stott

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  9. B9

    Stott hit for Sosa

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  10. B9

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  11. B9

    Kemp struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  16. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  17. B9

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  18. B9

    Bader grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

    −5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  24. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Harrison Bader

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 7·PHI 5

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 7·PHI 5

  27. T9

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  28. T9

    Greene grounded out to second.

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

    +0.6pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 7·PHI 5

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

7

Runs

5

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

26

TB

16

4

HR

2

2

BB

0

12

K

13

14

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 22, 25sim 97
    75
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 97
    188
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    103
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 95
    105
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    64
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs