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    +42.0pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4MIA
NYY

NYY

60-52

3
7
MIA

MIA

55-55

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
34,601 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYY 3 · MIA 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY1000002003
MIA030300107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 98
    188
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    187
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 97
    64
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 97
    180
    6(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    67
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off New York Yankees, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham

CF

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY60-52
3
7
MIA55-55
NYY60-52·MIA55-55
NYY

NYY

60-52

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-22111120
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000000
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000000
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44110003
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44122101
SPRINT28.175
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
1-22010000
SPRINT26.838
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-44000004
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000001
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000001
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-22000002
Team6-33333632214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
3.1555430
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
2.2211031
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.0211220
Team8.0977681
MIA

MIA

55-55

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55121001
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-44124102
SPRINT2622
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000002
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-33000010
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-33110010
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT27.765
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33100012
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-22210020
SPRINT26.326
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-22111000
SPRINT26.326
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000010
Team9-3131797168
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
6.0211171
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
1.0322121
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0000020
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0100030
Team9.06332142

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • L. Gil
    77 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.4 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.3 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      26%·91.9 mph·29% whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    42 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      69%·94.0 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Headrick
    31 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      45%·82.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·84.4 mph·100% whiff

MIA

  • E. Cabrera
    94 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      32%·83.9 mph·53% whiff
    • CH
      27%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      48%·82.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      22%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      44%·91.0 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      33%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      43%·87.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

3

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

Aug 1NYYNYY12@MIAMIA13
Aug 2NYYNYY0@MIAMIA2
Aug 3NYYNYY3@MIAMIA7today

Season series

MIA wins series 3-0

Aug 1NYYNYY12@MIAMIA13
Aug 2NYYNYY0@MIAMIA2
Aug 3NYYNYY3@MIAMIA7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYYNYY
T. Grisham

T. Grisham

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

MIAMIA
K. Stowers

K. Stowers

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYY 7-3.

Win probability

MIA vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 65% WP

Johnston · doubled to right, Hernández scored, Pauley to third.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 1-6
+13pp→ 95% WP

Stowers · homered to right center (377 feet), Pauley scored and Edwards scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY1000002003
MIA03030010—7

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · MIA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Johnston 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Stowers 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
1

Inn 7

Jr. 2

Marsee 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
MIA

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  2. T9

    Volpe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  8. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Anthony Volpe

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  9. T9

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  10. T9

    McMahon struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

    +0.8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  17. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Ryan McMahon

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  18. T9

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  19. T9

    Slater struck out looking.

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

    +2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  21. T9

    Chisholm Jr. to second on wild pitch by Bachar.

    ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  22. T9

    Chisholm Jr. to second on wild pitch by Bachar.

    ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  28. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Austin Slater

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  29. T9

    ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

  30. T9

    Chisholm Jr. singled to center.

    ·

    NYY 3·MIA 7

    −2pp

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

7

6

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

14

TB

16

2

HR

1

2

BB

6

14

K

8

11

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.4%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.4%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.