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  • MLBBot 1
    ATL 0@CIN 0
    +5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@STL 0
    -12.2pphigh
  • MLBBot 9
    LAA 14@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • WNBA7:19 - 3rd
    LA 41@CON 45
    +30.0pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYM
LAA

LAA

49-52

2
3
NYM

NYM

58-44

Citi Field · Queens, New York
43,055 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

LAA 2 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0100100002
NYM000030003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Los Angeles Angels, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA49-52
2
3
NYM58-44
LAA49-52·NYM58-44
LAA

LAA

49-52

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000012
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
4-55041000
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-55010002
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000003
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT2622
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
3-44030000
SPRINT27.251
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.148
Team11-373721121211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
4.2533121
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.1000210
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0000130
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
1.0000110
Team8.0533571
NYM

NYM

58-44

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000002
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-11000030
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000010
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-44112101
SPRINT25.716
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
1-33110000
Team5-3030353157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. MontasF. Montas★SP
5.2822261
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100020
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.1000020
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0200010
Team9.011222111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • K. Hendricks
    67 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      42%·86.4 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      36%·79.8 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      19%·86.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      3%·72.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      52%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FC
      30%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SV
      25%·85.6 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Fulmer
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      33%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.4 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • F. Montas
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      26%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·85.8 mph·42% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.8 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      52%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      36%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·97.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      18%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Stanek
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·98.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      46%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

2

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 3-0

Jul 21LAALAA5@NYMNYM7
Jul 22LAALAA2@NYMNYM3today
Jul 23LAALAA3@NYMNYM6

Season series

NYM lead series 2-0

Jul 21LAALAA5@NYMNYM7
Jul 22LAALAA2@NYMNYM3today
Jul 23LAALAA3@NYMNYM6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 5th Inning

LAALAA
N. Schanuel

N. Schanuel

1B

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1.600 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

F. Montas

F. Montas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat LAA 3-2. Alvarez's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 5th Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 78% WP

Schanuel · doubled to second, Rengifo scored, Neto to third.

NYMBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+28pp→ 60% WP

Alvarez · homered to left (374 feet), Baty scored.

NYMTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+15pp→ 100% WP

Trout · popped out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0100100002
NYM00003000—3

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

2

Runs

3

11

Hits

5

2

Errors

0

17

TB

9

1

HR

1

2

BB

5

11

K

7

15

LOB

18

Win probability

NYM vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Soler 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
3

Inn 5

Schanuel 1

Alvarez 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
NYM

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  2. T9

    Trout popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

    +15pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  6. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  7. T9

    Wade Jr. ran for Schanuel

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  8. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  9. T9

    Schanuel singled to right, Taylor to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

    −8pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  11. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  12. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  13. T9

    Neto flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

    +9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  17. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Zach Neto

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  18. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  19. T9

    Rengifo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

    +8pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  24. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Luis Rengifo

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  25. T9

    Taylor ran for O'Hoppe

    · ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  26. T9

    ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  27. T9

    O'Hoppe singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

    −12pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    LAA 2·NYM 3

Player projections

NYM vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    56.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.3%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.5%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    53
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    112
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    301
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 94
    51
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    33
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
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