Sep 8, 25sim 98
1966
17(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+31LV
CHI
10-33
6192
LV
29-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Chicago Sky, 92–61. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
10.6Game score
13
Pts
13
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
18.4Game score
15
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI10-33
6192
LV29-14
CHI10-33LV29-14
CHI
10-33
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 33 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -37 | |
| 34 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -36 | |
| 23 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
| 28 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -23 | |
| 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -37 | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 61 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: A. Reese, C. Vandersloot, A. Atkins, H. Van Lith | ||||||||
LV
29-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 25 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +23 | |
| 29 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +8 | |
| 27 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +19 | |
| 26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +27 | |
| 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7 | |
| 30 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +28 | |
| 22 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20 | |
| Team | 92 | 27 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Bell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
55
12
Ast
26
Season series
LV wins series 3-0
Aug 26LV79@CHI74
LV79@CHI74Sep 8CHI66@LV80
CHI66@LV80Sep 10CHI61@LV92today
CHI61@LV92todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 12.0
CHIK. Cardoso
CGame leader · 33 min
13 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
LV beat CHI 92-61. J. Young led with 15 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. LV outscored the other side 28-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
41 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST
GS 23
Bench(3)
20 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
LVstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
41 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST
GS 38
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 21 | 11 | 15 | 61 |
| LV | 28 | 15 | 23 | 26 | 92 |
Period scoring
CHI won 1 · LV won 3
14
28
Q1
Onyenwere 6
Wilson 7
21
15
Q2
Allen 7
Gray 7
11
23
Q3
Westbeld 5
Young 10
15
26
Q4
Nurse 5
Evans 8
CHI
LV
Shooting comparison
CHI
LV
33%
19-58
FG
55%
34-62
18%
4-22
3PT
52%
15-29
95%
19-20
FT
75%
9-12
Play-by-play · 343 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 61·LV 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 61·LV 92
- Q4·21.3
Rachel Banham makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 61·LV 92
- Q4·21.3
Rachel Banham makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 60·LV 92
- Q4·21.3
Aaliyah Nye personal foul
CHI 59·LV 92
- Q4·26.4
Rachel Banham defensive rebound
CHI 59·LV 92
- Q4·29.9
Megan Gustafson misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 59·LV 92
- Q4·46.7
Rachel Banham makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 59·LV 92
- Q4·46.7
Rachel Banham makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 58·LV 92
- Q4·46.7
Aaliyah Nye shooting foul
CHI 57·LV 92
- Q4·59.9
Sky defensive team rebound
CHI 57·LV 92
- Q4·1:01
Megan Gustafson misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 57·LV 92
- Q4·1:19
Kia Nurse out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHI 57·LV 92
- Q4·1:30
Megan Gustafson makes layup (Jewell Loyd assists)
·
CHI 57·LV 92
- Q4·1:35
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
CHI 57·LV 90
- Q4·1:39
Maddy Westbeld misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 57·LV 90
- Q4·1:54
Dana Evans makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
CHI 57·LV 90
- Q4·2:16
Kia Nurse makes two point shot (Maddy Westbeld assists)
·
CHI 57·LV 88
- Q4·2:20
Aaliyah Nye bad pass (Maddy Westbeld steals)
·
CHI 55·LV 88
- Q4·2:33
shot clock turnover
CHI 55·LV 88
- Q4·2:53
Rebecca Allen enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
CHI 55·LV 88
- Q4·2:53
Sky Full timeout
CHI 55·LV 88
- Q4·3:01
Megan Gustafson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dana Evans assists)
·
CHI 55·LV 88
- Q4·3:07
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
CHI 55·LV 85
- Q4·3:09
Maddy Westbeld misses 11-foot two point shot
CHI 55·LV 85
- Q4·3:18
Megan Gustafson enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
CHI 55·LV 85
- Q4·3:18
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 55·LV 85
- Q4·3:18
Jewell Loyd blocks Michaela Onyenwere 's 5-foot driving layup
· ·
CHI 55·LV 85
- Q4·3:33
NaLyssa Smith makes 4-foot layup (Dana Evans assists)
·
CHI 55·LV 85
- Q4·3:47
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
CHI 55·LV 83
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
LV
Home
19-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-62
33
FG %
55
4-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-29
19-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-12
12
Assists
26
12
Turnovers
7
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Jacy SheldonCHI1.1± 2.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
LV
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶91.0
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6