Jul 26, 25sim 93
6101
9(H)99
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5LA
LA
21-22
8883
PHX
27-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 88–83.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
23.7Game score
25
Pts
9
Reb
5
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
20.2Game score
24
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA21-22
8883
PHX27-16
LA21-22PHX27-16
LA
21-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 27 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 33 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 29 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +14 | |
| 15 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +11 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 29 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 88 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili | ||||||||
PHX
27-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 25 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 19 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | |
| 14 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 83 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 12 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
42
21
Ast
20
Season series
PHX wins series 3-1
May 22LA86@PHX89
LA86@PHX89Jun 1PHX85@LA80
PHX85@LA80Aug 27PHX92@LA84
PHX92@LA84Sep 10LA88@PHX83today
LA88@PHX83todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 1:33
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 29 min
25 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 25 min
24 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
LA beat PHX 88-83. D. Hamby paced them with 25 PTS, 9 REB, 5 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
GS 18
PHXstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST
GS 41
Bench(7)
34 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 9:44 · 63-62
+14pp→ 62% WP
Rae Burrell · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 5:34 · 74-73
+14pp→ 50% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rae Burrell assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 1:33 · 83-81
+14pp→ 28% WP
Kiana Williams · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lexi Held assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 19 | 26 | 18 | 25 | 88 |
| PHX | 25 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 83 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · PHX won 1
19
25
Q1
Plum 8
Sabally 5
26
19
Q2
Burrell 12
Sabally 12
18
18
Q3
Stevens 5
Sabally 7
25
21
Q4
Hamby 16
Brown 7
LA
PHX
Shooting comparison
LA
PHX
42%
29-69
FG
42%
30-72
29%
9-31
3PT
33%
10-30
84%
21-25
FT
76%
13-17
Play-by-play · 388 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 88·PHX 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 88·PHX 83
- Q4·1.2
Azura Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 88·PHX 83
- Q4·1.2
Sarah Ashlee Barker enters the game for Rae Burrell
·
LA 87·PHX 83
- Q4·1.2
Azura Stevens makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 87·PHX 83
- Q4·1.2
Kitija Laksa personal take foul
LA 86·PHX 83
−3pp
- Q4·7.0
Kalani Brown makes two point shot
LA 86·PHX 83
+2pp
- Q4·7.0
Kalani Brown offensive rebound
LA 86·PHX 81
+0.6pp
- Q4·9.7
Kitija Laksa misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
LA 86·PHX 81
−4pp
- Q4·20.9
Mercury timeout
LA 86·PHX 81
- Q4·20.9
shot clock turnover
LA 86·PHX 81
- Q4·43.6
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
LA 86·PHX 81
−2pp
- Q4·47.4
Kathryn Westbeld misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 86·PHX 81
−4pp
- Q4·53.6
Kathryn Westbeld offensive rebound
LA 86·PHX 81
+3pp
- Q4·55.8
Kiana Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA 86·PHX 81
−4pp
- Q4·1:01
Mercury Full timeout
LA 86·PHX 81
- Q4·1:01
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 1
LA 86·PHX 81
+4pp
- Q4·1:01
Lexi Held shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LA 85·PHX 81
−11pp
- Q4·1:01
Dearica Hamby makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 85·PHX 81
−8pp
- Q4·1:01
Dearica Hamby offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 81
−9pp
- Q4·1:01
Dearica Hamby misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 81
+9pp
- Q4·1:01
Dearica Hamby offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 81
−9pp
- Q4·1:03
Kelsey Plum misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 81
+9pp
- Q4·1:11
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 81
−9pp
- Q4·1:14
Azura Stevens misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 81
+8pp
- Q4·1:33
Kiana Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lexi Held assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 83·PHX 81
+14pp
- Q4·1:48
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 83·PHX 78
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:48
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 82·PHX 78
+3pp
- Q4·1:48
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 82·PHX 78
+3pp
- Q4·1:48
Kathryn Westbeld shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LA 82·PHX 78
−6pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
29-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-72
42
FG %
42
9-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-30
21-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-17
21
Assists
20
9
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
PHX
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
42.3%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
83.7
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4