Sep 7, 25sim 96
878
129689(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11IND
MIN
33-10
7283
IND
24-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Minnesota Lynx, 83–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Jessica Shepard
F · #15
17.1Game score
16
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
13.2Game score
18
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN33-10
7283
IND24-20
MIN33-10IND24-20
MIN
33-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -26 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -25 | |
| 20 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -4 | |
| 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 25 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 16 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +13 | |
| 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +9 | |
| 25 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 72 | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 11 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, D. Carrington | ||||||||
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 29 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 33 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 26 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +15 | |
| 26 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 12 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 17 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| Team | 83 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark, B. Hall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
48
21
Ast
19
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Aug 22MIN95@IND90
MIN95@IND90Aug 24IND84@MIN97
IND84@MIN97Sep 9MIN72@IND83today
MIN72@IND83todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:50
MINJ. Shepard
FGame leader · 30 min
16 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 26 min
18 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat MIN 83-72. K. Mitchell led with 18 PTS, 1 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 28-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST
GS 38
Bench(5)
29 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST
GS 19
INDstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST
GS 45
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 3:36 · 10-20
+7pp→ 70% WP
Aerial Powers · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 7:50 · 45-49
+8pp→ 36% WP
Alanna Smith · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
IND3rd Quarter · 6:46 · 45-54
+7pp→ 79% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brianna Turner assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 14 | 22 | 17 | 19 | 72 |
| IND | 28 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 83 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · IND won 2
14
28
Q1
Kliundikova 4
Powers 8
22
21
Q2
Shepard 8
Sims 6
17
21
Q3
Smith 7
Mitchell 9
19
13
Q4
Kosu 6
Dantas 5
MIN
IND
Shooting comparison
MIN
IND
45%
33-74
FG
48%
31-64
10%
2-20
3PT
47%
9-19
44%
4-9
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 356 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 72·IND 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 72·IND 83
- Q4·0.5
shot clock turnover
MIN 72·IND 83
- Q4·24.5
Maria Kliundikova makes two point shot
MIN 72·IND 83
- Q4·24.5
Maria Kliundikova offensive rebound
MIN 70·IND 83
- Q4·26.4
Makayla Timpson blocks Maria Kliundikova 's 4-foot driving layup
·
MIN 70·IND 83
- Q4·34.9
Natisha Hiedeman offensive rebound
MIN 70·IND 83
- Q4·38.5
Camryn Taylor misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 70·IND 83
- Q4·48.5
Odyssey Sims makes 11-foot two point shot
MIN 70·IND 83
- Q4·1:11
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes two point shot
MIN 70·IND 81
- Q4·1:11
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
MIN 68·IND 81
- Q4·1:13
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses layup
MIN 68·IND 81
- Q4·1:27
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
MIN 68·IND 81
- Q4·1:30
Shey Peddy misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 68·IND 81
- Q4·1:47
Fever Full timeout
MIN 68·IND 81
- Q4·1:47
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 3-foot layup (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
MIN 68·IND 81
- Q4·2:00
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
MIN 66·IND 81
- Q4·2:00
Lynx defensive team rebound
MIN 66·IND 81
- Q4·2:02
Damiris Dantas misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 66·IND 81
- Q4·2:12
Jaylyn Sherrod makes driving layup (Camryn Taylor assists)
·
MIN 66·IND 81
- Q4·2:34
Shey Peddy out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·2:43
Maria Kliundikova turnover
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·2:43
Maria Kliundikova offensive foul
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·2:45
Official timeout
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·2:57
Camryn Taylor defensive rebound
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·2:59
Damiris Dantas misses 7-foot two point shot
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·3:07
Camryn Taylor personal foul
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·3:26
Maria Kliundikova loose ball foul
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·3:26
Fever defensive team rebound
MIN 64·IND 81
- Q4·3:28
Maria Kliundikova misses running pullup jump shot
MIN 64·IND 81
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
IND
Home
33-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-64
45
FG %
48
2-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-19
4-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
21
Assists
19
11
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort- Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
IND
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
89.7
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
21.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4