Sep 6, 25sim 96
984
14(H)76
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1SEA
GS
23-20
7374
SEA
23-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Golden State Valkyries, 74–73. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Janelle Salaun
F · #13
18.3Game score
22
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
12.8Game score
16
Pts
8
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS23-20
7374
SEA23-21
GS23-20SEA23-21
GS
23-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 38 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 28 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 25 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 73 | 35 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Thornton, L. Amihere, T. Hayes, K. Chen | ||||||||
SEA
23-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 23 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 26 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3 | |
| 28 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | |
| 37 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 22 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | |
| 32 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 74 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, T. Mitchell, L. Brown, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
41
18
Ast
18
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 15SEA70@GS76
SEA70@GS76Jun 30SEA57@GS84
SEA57@GS84Jul 16GS58@SEA67
GS58@SEA67Sep 10GS73@SEA74today
GS73@SEA74todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 43.2
GSJ. Salaun
FGame leader · 35 min
22 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 min
16 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
SEA beat GS 74-73. N. Ogwumike led with 16 PTS, 8 REB, 0 AST. SEA outscored the other side 21-12 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 93% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 57
Bench(4)
5 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 3
SEAstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 37
Bench(2)
26 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 2:11 · 68-70
+22pp→ 68% WP
Erica Wheeler · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
GS4th Quarter · 1:18 · 70-70
+23pp→ 47% WP
Skylar Diggins · misses driving layup
SEA4th Quarter · 43.2 · 70-71
+23pp→ 64% WP
Kate Martin · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 18 | 18 | 25 | 12 | 73 |
| SEA | 12 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 74 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · SEA won 2
18
12
Q1
Charles 6
Ogwumike 4
18
21
Q2
Charles 6
Diggins 4
25
20
Q3
Salaun 12
Ogwumike 6
12
21
Q4
Salaun 5
Wheeler 11
GS
SEA
Shooting comparison
GS
SEA
40%
26-65
FG
41%
26-64
34%
10-29
3PT
41%
7-17
79%
11-14
FT
75%
15-20
Play-by-play · 360 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 73·SEA 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 74
+6pp
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Golden State Valkyries] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
GS 73·SEA 74
- Q4·2.2
Erica Wheeler defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 74
+16pp
- Q4·7.0
Janelle Salaun misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 74
+22pp
- Q4·10.6
Kate Martin offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 74
−12pp
- Q4·14.0
Janelle Salaun misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 74
+13pp
- Q4·18.5
Gabby Williams enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
GS 73·SEA 74
- Q4·18.5
Kate Martin enters the game for Monique Billings
·
GS 73·SEA 74
- Q4·18.5
Iliana Rupert enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
GS 73·SEA 74
- Q4·18.5
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 73·SEA 74
- Q4·19.2
Erica Wheeler makes 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 74
+9pp
- Q4·28.1
Nneka Ogwumike offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 72
+10pp
- Q4·31.1
Nneka Ogwumike misses 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 72
−11pp
- Q4·36.6
Kaila Charles enters the game for Iliana Rupert
·
GS 73·SEA 72
- Q4·36.6
Storm Full timeout
GS 73·SEA 72
- Q4·37.4
Iliana Rupert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 73·SEA 72
−19pp
- Q4·41.4
Iliana Rupert enters the game for Kate Martin
·
GS 70·SEA 72
- Q4·41.4
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 70·SEA 72
- Q4·41.4
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 70·SEA 72
−2pp
- Q4·41.4
Storm offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
−8pp
- Q4·41.4
Nneka Ogwumike misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
−7pp
- Q4·41.4
Temi Fagbenle loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
+15pp
- Q4·41.4
Storm defensive team rebound
GS 70·SEA 71
+3pp
- Q4·43.2
Kate Martin misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
+23pp
- Q4·53.8
Skylar Diggins personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
−23pp
- Q4·1:16
Monique Billings defensive rebound
GS 70·SEA 71
- Q4·1:17
Skylar Diggins misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
−16pp
- Q4·1:17
Kate Martin enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
GS 70·SEA 71
- Q4·1:17
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 70·SEA 71
+7pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
26-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-64
40
FG %
41
10-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-17
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-20
18
Assists
18
9
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Mackenzie HolmesSEA5.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
SEA
41.3%
FG%
44.7
41.6%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.1%
86.4
PPG
◀
85.4
79.5
19.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6