Aug 23, 25sim 96
1894
19(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6CON
CON
10-28
10195
DAL
9-30
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 101–95.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Leila Lacan
G · #47
22.1Game score
22
Pts
3
Reb
6
Ast
DAL · top performer
Aziaha James
G · #10
16.8Game score
22
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON10-28
10195
DAL9-30
CON10-28DAL9-30
CON
10-28
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 30 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +18 | |
DRB%.37199+ ORB%.13693 USG%.25476 | ||||||||
| 27 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +11 | |
| 26 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 30 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
USG%.30598 eFG%.53560 TS%.58557 | ||||||||
| 32 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 25 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| Team | 101 | 32 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 12 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall | ||||||||
DAL
9-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 34 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 29 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 28 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 23 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +5 | |
| 23 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| Team | 95 | 33 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 13 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
51
22
Ast
24
Season series
DAL wins series 2-1
May 27DAL109@CON87
DAL109@CON87Jun 20DAL86@CON83
DAL86@CON83Aug 28CON101@DAL95today
CON101@DAL95todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 27.8
CONL. Lacan
GGame leader · 32 min
22 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
DALA. James
GGame leader · 33 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
CON beat DAL 101-95. L. Lacan led with 22 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. CON outscored the other side 33-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST
GS 72
Bench(6)
24 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 12
DALstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST
GS 48
Bench(4)
37 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL4th Quarter · 2:21 · 91-87
+17pp→ 38% WP
Tina Charles · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 27.8 · 95-92
+19pp→ 89% WP
Marina Mabrey la · ne violation
CON4th Quarter · 22.5 · 97-93
+15pp→ 89% WP
Tina Charles · makes 3-foot two point shot (Aneesah Morrow assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 21 | 33 | 29 | 18 | 101 |
| DAL | 30 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 95 |
Period scoring
CON won 2 · DAL won 2
21
30
Q1
Lacan 8
Jones 8
33
19
Q2
Mabrey 11
Siegrist 6
29
21
Q3
Morrow 7
Hines-Allen 8
18
25
Q4
Nelson-Ododa 6
James 11
CON
DAL
Shooting comparison
CON
DAL
48%
33-69
FG
51%
38-75
38%
8-21
3PT
27%
6-22
93%
27-29
FT
76%
13-17
Play-by-play · 405 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 101·DAL 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 101·DAL 95
−0.6pp
- Q4·6.3
Tina Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 101·DAL 95
- Q4·6.3
Tina Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 100·DAL 95
- Q4·6.3
Diamond Miller enters the game for Aziaha James
·
CON 99·DAL 95
- Q4·6.3
Amy Okonkwo personal take foul
CON 99·DAL 95
−2pp
- Q4·8.2
Tina Charles defensive rebound
CON 99·DAL 95
−1pp
- Q4·9.7
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
CON 99·DAL 95
−6pp
- Q4·16.6
Wings timeout
CON 99·DAL 95
- Q4·16.6
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 99·DAL 95
+4pp
- Q4·16.6
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 98·DAL 95
−1pp
- Q4·16.6
Grace Berger personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CON 97·DAL 95
−10pp
- Q4·17.9
Sun Full timeout
CON 97·DAL 95
- Q4·18.6
Aziaha James makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 97·DAL 95
+5pp
- Q4·22.2
Aziaha James enters the game for Diamond Miller
·
CON 97·DAL 93
- Q4·22.2
Maddy Siegrist enters the game for Haley Jones
·
CON 97·DAL 93
- Q4·22.2
Wings Full timeout
CON 97·DAL 93
- Q4·22.5
Tina Charles makes 3-foot two point shot (Aneesah Morrow assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 97·DAL 93
−15pp
- Q4·27.8
Diamond Miller enters the game for Maddy Siegrist
·
CON 95·DAL 93
- Q4·27.8
Haley Jones enters the game for Aziaha James
·
CON 95·DAL 93
- Q4·27.8
Sun Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CON 95·DAL 93
+7pp
- Q4·27.8
Amy Okonkwo makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 95·DAL 93
+9pp
- Q4·27.8
Marina Mabrey lane violationBIG MOMENT
CON 95·DAL 92
−19pp
- Q4·27.8
Amy Okonkwo makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 95·DAL 92
+3pp
- Q4·27.8
Marina Mabrey shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 95·DAL 91
+11pp
- Q4·41.3
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
CON 95·DAL 91
+7pp
- Q4·41.3
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 95·DAL 91
−5pp
- Q4·41.6
Myisha Hines-Allen blocks Aneesah Morrow 's 3-foot driving layup
· ·
CON 95·DAL 91
+3pp
- Q4·1:03
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
CON 95·DAL 91
−2pp
- Q4·1:06
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
CON 95·DAL 91
−6pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
33-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-75
48
FG %
51
8-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-22
27-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-17
22
Assists
24
12
Turnovers
13
Shot map + zone breakdown
wehoop via ESPN PBPCON33/69 · 48%● made · ○ missed
At the rim9/13
69%
In the paint10/21
48%
Mid-range6/14
43%
Top-of-arc 37/17
41%
Left corner 31/3
33%
Right corner 30/1
0%
DAL38/75 · 51%● made · ○ missed
At the rim17/20
85%
In the paint13/27
48%
Mid-range2/6
33%
Top-of-arc 34/16
25%
Left corner 30/1
0%
Right corner 32/5
40%
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohort
Aneesah MorrowCON · FDRB%.37199+
Marina MabreyTOR · GUSG%.30598
Shot map + zone breakdown
wehoop via ESPN PBPCON33/69 · 48%● made · ○ missed
At the rim9/13
69%
In the paint10/21
48%
Mid-range6/14
43%
Top-of-arc 37/17
41%
Left corner 31/3
33%
Right corner 30/1
0%
DAL38/75 · 51%● made · ○ missed
At the rim17/20
85%
In the paint13/27
48%
Mid-range2/6
33%
Top-of-arc 34/16
25%
Left corner 30/1
0%
Right corner 32/5
40%
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.6%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
57.0%
P(DAL win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
56.4%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
57.6%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.50 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL17.7± 9.0low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.1± 11.7low
- Brittney GrinerCON12.5± 5.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.7± 5.4low
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.4± 6.1low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.0± 2.4low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL5.6± 3.1low
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.5± 5.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.4± 2.8low
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.3± 1.7low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.0± 1.3low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.2± 1.7low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.2± 1.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
DAL
41.4%
FG%
44.3
▶45.4%
25.9%
3PT %
32.9
▶35.3%
75.5
PPG
84.8
▶87.8
17.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.9
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.0