Aug 21, 25sim 95
1656
18(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15LA
LA
10-14
10186
CON
3-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 101–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
24.9Game score
30
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
19.2Game score
24
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA10-14
10186
CON3-20
LA10-14CON3-20
LA
10-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +28 | |
| 31 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +23 | |
| 24 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +7 | |
| 29 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 32 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +24 | |
| 16 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 101 | 39 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink | ||||||||
CON
3-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 29 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -5 | |
| 18 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | |
| 26 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -21 | |
| Team | 86 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
38
21
Ast
18
Season series
LA wins series 3-0
Jul 13CON88@LA92
CON88@LA92Jul 24LA101@CON86today
LA101@CON86todayAug 8CON91@LA102
CON91@LA102Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 13pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:49
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 29 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 33 min
24 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LA beat CON 101-86. K. Plum paced them with 30 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. LA outscored the other side 32-24 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 33 REB · 18 AST
GS 74
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
CONstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST
GS 53
Bench(6)
22 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON1st Quarter · 28.1 · 22-27
+8pp→ 56% WP
Jacy Sheldon · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lindsay Allen assists)
LA2nd Quarter · 7:42 · 28-27
+10pp→ 60% WP
Julie Vanloo · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)
CON1st Quarter · 2:40 · 20-19
+11pp→ 38% WP
Lindsay Allen · enters the game for Bria Hartley
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 22 | 23 | 32 | 24 | 101 |
| CON | 27 | 17 | 24 | 18 | 86 |
Period scoring
LA won 3 · CON won 1
22
27
Q1
Plum 8
Charles 9
23
17
Q2
Vanloo 6
Hartley 6
32
24
Q3
Plum 11
Rivers 26
24
18
Q4
Plum 8
Nelson-Ododa 7
LA
CON
Shooting comparison
LA
CON
52%
33-63
FG
38%
29-76
43%
12-28
3PT
33%
8-24
64%
23-36
FT
87%
20-23
Play-by-play · 423 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·17.0
Julie Vanloo turnover
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·17.0
Julie Vanloo offensive foul
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·21.0
Sania Feagin defensive rebound
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·23.0
Saniya Rivers misses 15-foot two point shot
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·25.1
Saniya Rivers offensive rebound
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·29.1
Marina Mabrey misses 30-foot three point jumper
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·32.1
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·35.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·35.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 101·CON 86
- Q4·35.1
Sania Feagin shooting foul
LA 101·CON 85
- Q4·50.1
Julie Vanloo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rae Burrell assists)
·
LA 101·CON 85
- Q4·1:11
Marina Mabrey makes 24-foot three point jumper
LA 98·CON 85
- Q4·1:15
Emma Cannon bad pass (Leila Lacan steals)
·
LA 98·CON 82
- Q4·1:27
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
LA 98·CON 82
- Q4·1:28
Leila Lacan misses 27-foot three point jumper
LA 98·CON 82
- Q4·1:37
Julie Vanloo out of bounds bad pass turnover
LA 98·CON 82
- Q4·1:46
Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes 15-foot jumper (Marina Mabrey assists)
·
LA 98·CON 82
- Q4·1:55
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
LA 98·CON 80
- Q4·1:58
Olivia Nelson-Ododa blocks Sania Feagin 's 7-foot jumper
·
LA 98·CON 80
- Q4·2:09
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 98·CON 80
- Q4·2:09
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 98·CON 79
- Q4·2:09
Sarah Ashlee Barker shooting foul
LA 98·CON 78
- Q4·2:16
Leila Lacan offensive rebound
LA 98·CON 78
- Q4·2:16
Rae Burrell vs. Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Leila Lacan gains possession)
· ·
LA 98·CON 78
- Q4·2:20
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses 18-foot jumper
LA 98·CON 78
- Q4·2:43
Rae Burrell makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 98·CON 78
- Q4·2:43
Sania Feagin enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
LA 97·CON 78
- Q4·2:43
Julie Vanloo enters the game for Julie Allemand
·
LA 97·CON 78
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
CON
Home
33-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-76
52
FG %
38
12-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-24
23-36
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-23
21
Assists
18
15
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Brittney GrinerCON0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
CON
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8