Jul 24, 25sim 95
6101
18(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11CON
WSH
16-20
5667
CON
8-27
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun held off Washington Mystics, 67–56.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
9.9Game score
13
Pts
10
Reb
1
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
18.6Game score
21
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH16-20
5667
CON8-27
WSH16-20CON8-27
WSH
16-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | |
| 20 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -9 | |
| 29 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 31 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 56 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 16 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
CON
8-27
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 22 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 37 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 38 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 16 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 28 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 67 | 34 | 20 | 15 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: H. Peters, R. Marshall, L. Allen, M. Toure | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
40
13
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 18WSH90@CON85
WSH90@CON85Jun 8CON67@WSH104
CON67@WSH104Aug 19CON80@WSH69
CON80@WSH69Aug 21WSH56@CON67today
WSH56@CON67todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:52
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 27 min
13 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 22 min
21 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
CON beat WSH 67-56. T. Charles led with 21 PTS, 6 REB, 0 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST
GS 22
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 9
CONstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 35
Bench(3)
25 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 9:41 · 11-19
+9pp→ 71% WP
Saniya Rivers · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Olivia Nelson-Ododa assists)
WSH2nd Quarter · 5:48 · 16-26
+10pp→ 23% WP
Mystics Coach's Challenge ·
WSH2nd Quarter · 6:52 · 16-25
+11pp→ 24% WP
shot clock turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 11 | 15 | 19 | 11 | 56 |
| CON | 16 | 17 | 23 | 11 | 67 |
Period scoring
WSH won 0 · CON won 3
11
16
Q1
Iriafen 4
Charles 7
15
17
Q2
Dolson 5
Rivers 5
19
23
Q3
Sutton 4
Charles 12
11
11
Q4
Citron 6
Edwards 4
WSH
CON
Shooting comparison
WSH
CON
37%
19-51
FG
40%
27-67
19%
3-16
3PT
14%
2-14
83%
15-18
FT
65%
11-17
Play-by-play · 373 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·4.6
shot clock turnover
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·27.4
Leila Lacan defensive rebound
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·29.5
Lucy Olsen misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·38.9
Sug Sutton enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·39.9
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·42.2
Saniya Rivers misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:05
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:08
Alysha Clark misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:17
Lucy Olsen defensive rebound
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:18
Marina Mabrey misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:34
Lucy Olsen bad pass (Tina Charles steals)
·
WSH 56·CON 67
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:52
Sun Full timeout
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:52
Madison Scott enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:52
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:52
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·1:53
Leila Lacan misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·2:15
Stefanie Dolson makes layup (Kiki Iriafen assists)
·
WSH 56·CON 67
- Q4·2:26
Tina Charles makes layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
WSH 54·CON 67
- Q4·2:48
Sonia Citron lost ball turnover (Leila Lacan steals)
·
WSH 54·CON 65
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:54
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 54·CON 65
- Q4·2:57
Marina Mabrey misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 54·CON 65
- Q4·3:12
Kiki Iriafen makes driving layup (Alysha Clark assists)
·
WSH 54·CON 65
- Q4·3:31
Saniya Rivers makes 2-foot two point shot (Aneesah Morrow assists)
·
WSH 52·CON 65
- Q4·3:43
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 52·CON 63
+1pp
- Q4·3:43
Aneesah Morrow enters the game for Aaliyah Edwards
·
WSH 51·CON 63
- Q4·3:43
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 51·CON 63
- Q4·3:43
Leila Lacan personal foul
WSH 50·CON 63
−0.9pp
- Q4·3:57
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Shakira Austin
·
WSH 50·CON 63
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
CON
Home
19-51
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-67
37
FG %
40
3-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-14
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-17
13
Assists
20
16
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.5± 7.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH2.9± 2.6low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Brittney GrinerCON0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
CON
45.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
28.0%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
83.4
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
18.7
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8