Jun 26, 25sim 81
1859
17(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4LA
CON
3-18
8892
LA
7-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Connecticut Sun, 92–88. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Bria Hartley
G · #14
19.6Game score
25
Pts
1
Reb
6
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
18.4Game score
23
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 9 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -1 | 7 | 3 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | -7 | 3 | 0 | |
| 33 | 25 | 7-17 | 4-11 | 7-8 | -11 | 1 | 6 | |
| 18 | 11 | 5-6 | 1-2 | — | -7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 30 | 20 | 8-11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | -3 | 6 | 1 | |
AST/TO1.960 USG%.18929 ORB%.01712 | ||||||||
| 22 | 10 | 5-11 | 0-3 | — | 0 | 7 | 0 | |
DRB%.37199+ ORB%.13693 USG%.25476 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-3 | — | +2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 88 | 34-68 | 9-25 | 11-14 | 28 | 15 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, M. Mabrey | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 17 | 7-13 | — | 3-4 | +10 | 7 | 4 | |
ORB%.10590 DRB%.22681 TS%.59467 | ||||||||
| 27 | 21 | 7-17 | 5-8 | 2-4 | +4 | 11 | 1 | |
| 32 | 19 | 9-16 | 1-4 | — | +2 | 6 | 4 | |
| 34 | 23 | 8-14 | 3-7 | 4-4 | +10 | 1 | 3 | |
| 31 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +13 | 4 | 6 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -9 | 0 | 2 | |
| 17 | 7 | 3-3 | — | 1-2 | +2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 92 | 35-75 | 10-27 | 12-16 | 32 | 22 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, C. Brink | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
47
15
Ast
22
Season series
LA wins series 3-0
Jul 13CON88@LA92today
CON88@LA92todayJul 24LA101@CON86
LA101@CON86Aug 8CON91@LA102
CON91@LA102Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 9:48
CONB. Hartley
GGame leader · 33 min
25 PTS · 1 REB · 6 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 34 min
23 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LA beat CON 92-88. K. Plum led with 23 PTS, 1 REB, 3 AST. Sania Feagin's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST
GS 49
Bench(3)
19 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 12
LAstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST
GS 74
Bench(4)
7 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
GS 2
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 9:48 · 67-69
+24pp→ 46% WP
Sania Feagin · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 3:53 · 83-84
+15pp→ 41% WP
Bria Hartley · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tina Charles assists)
LA4th Quarter · 1:28 · 85-88
+13pp→ 90% WP
Olivia Nelson-Ododa · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 88 |
| LA | 27 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 92 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · LA won 3
30
27
Q1
Hartley 9
Jackson 11
19
20
Q2
Rivers 6
Hamby 9
18
22
Q3
Hartley 6
Plum 9
21
23
Q4
Rivers 8
Plum 9
CON
LA
Shooting comparison
CON
LA
50%
34-68
FG
47%
35-75
36%
9-25
3PT
37%
10-27
79%
11-14
FT
75%
12-16
Play-by-play · 378 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 88·LA 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 88·LA 92
+0.9pp
- Q4·3.0
Aneesah Morrow makes layup (Bria Hartley assists)
·
CON 88·LA 92
- Q4·4.1
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 86·LA 92
- Q4·4.1
Rickea Jackson blocks Saniya Rivers 's 4-foot layup
·
CON 86·LA 92
- Q4·6.1
Sun Full timeout
CON 86·LA 92
- Q4·6.1
Azura Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 86·LA 92
- Q4·6.1
Azura Stevens makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 86·LA 91
- Q4·6.1
Bria Hartley personal foul
CON 86·LA 90
+1pp
- Q4·6.1
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
CON 86·LA 90
+0.6pp
- Q4·6.1
Leila Lacan misses two point shot
CON 86·LA 90
+4pp
- Q4·10.0
Kelsey Plum lost ball turnover (Leila Lacan steals)
·
CON 86·LA 90
−1pp
- Q4·18.0
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
CON 86·LA 90
+2pp
- Q4·21.1
Bria Hartley misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 86·LA 90
+5pp
- Q4·25.1
Sun Full timeout
CON 86·LA 90
- Q4·25.1
Sun defensive team rebound
CON 86·LA 90
−1pp
- Q4·26.2
Dearica Hamby misses two point shot
CON 86·LA 90
−2pp
- Q4·47.0
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 86·LA 90
- Q4·47.0
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 85·LA 90
+5pp
- Q4·47.0
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 85·LA 90
+6pp
- Q4·47.0
Rickea Jackson loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CON 85·LA 90
−11pp
- Q4·47.0
Sun defensive team rebound
CON 85·LA 90
- Q4·47.0
Saniya Rivers vs. Rickea Jackson
·
CON 85·LA 90
−0.9pp
- Q4·49.0
Julie Allemand misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 85·LA 90
−2pp
- Q4·1:07
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
CON 85·LA 90
+1pp
- Q4·1:11
Tina Charles misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 85·LA 90
+4pp
- Q4·1:28
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 85·LA 90
−4pp
- Q4·1:28
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 85·LA 89
+1pp
- Q4·1:28
Aneesah Morrow enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa
·
CON 85·LA 88
- Q4·1:28
Olivia Nelson-Ododa shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 85·LA 88
+13pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
LA
Home
34-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-75
50
FG %
47
9-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-27
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-16
15
Assists
22
16
Turnovers
12
Shot map + zone breakdown
wehoop via ESPN PBPCON34/68 · 50%● made · ○ missed
At the rim10/14
71%
In the paint7/15
47%
Mid-range8/14
57%
Top-of-arc 38/22
36%
Left corner 30/1
0%
Right corner 31/2
50%
LA35/75 · 47%● made · ○ missed
At the rim19/32
59%
In the paint6/15
40%
Mid-range0/1
0%
Top-of-arc 37/19
37%
Left corner 31/4
25%
Right corner 32/4
50%
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Aneesah MorrowCON · FDRB%.37199+
Dearica HambyLA · FORB%.10590
Shot map + zone breakdown
wehoop via ESPN PBPCON34/68 · 50%● made · ○ missed
At the rim10/14
71%
In the paint7/15
47%
Mid-range8/14
57%
Top-of-arc 38/22
36%
Left corner 30/1
0%
Right corner 31/2
50%
LA35/75 · 47%● made · ○ missed
At the rim19/32
59%
In the paint6/15
40%
Mid-range0/1
0%
Top-of-arc 37/19
37%
Left corner 31/4
25%
Right corner 32/4
50%
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.6%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
67.6%
P(LA win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
68.5%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
70.2%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.07 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.8± 9.8low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.2± 5.1low
- Dearica HambyLA14.9± 8.9low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.7± 5.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA7.3± 4.3low
- Dearica HambyLA7.1± 4.0low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.6± 3.6low
- Erica WheelerLA5.0± 3.3low
- Saniya RiversCON3.4± 2.8low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 1.3low
- Brittney GrinerCON1.3± 1.7low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.0± 1.3low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.9± 1.7low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.2± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
LA
41.4%
FG%
44.3
▶47.4%
25.9%
3PT %
32.9
▶33.1%
75.5
PPG
84.8
▶87.9
17.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.7
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.8