Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7NYR

WSH

39-30-9

NYR

33-36-9

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasWSH -115

WSH · top performer

Connor McMichael

C · #24

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Will Cuylle

LW · #50

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	12:46
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	16:44
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	2	4	2	7	13:29
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	9:44
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	1	2	1	5	10:33
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	-3	2	3	0	0	15:58
C. McMichaelC · #24	1	0	-3	1	0	3	2	17:12
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	17:26
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:05
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	-2	2	3	0	0	15:29
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	13:35
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	1	-2	1	4	2	0	19:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	1	5	17:41
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	18:59
C. HutsonD · #44	0	0	-4	0	0	1	0	18:38
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	-3	0	0	3	0	18:00
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	21:06
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. LindgrenG · #79	33	8	25	.758	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	14:07
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	14:19
W. CuylleLW · #50	3	0	3	6	4	0	9	12:58
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	1	0	0	4	2	5	9:44
N. LabaC · #42	0	1	2	2	2	0	5	15:38
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:06
J.T. MillerLW · #8	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	14:58
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:55
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:49
A. SykoraLW · #38	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	13:36
V. TrocheckC · #16	1	1	3	3	3	0	0	17:03
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	3	1	2	1	3	0	19:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:24
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:53
A. FoxD · #23	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	19:31
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	21:05
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:50
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	1	4	2	0	1	2	20:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	21	1	20	.952	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 12

WSH1@

NYR0

Dec 24

NYR7@

WSH3

Dec 31

NYR3@

WSH6

Apr 5

WSH1@

NYR8today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-11553%

NYR-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 86 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat WSH 8-1. W. Cuylle led the way — 3 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	1	0	0	1
NYR	1	5	2	8

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · NYR won 2

WSH

NYR

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·19:55
Justin Sourdif hit Will Borgen
·
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·19:45
Justin Sourdif hit Jonny Brodzinski
·
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·19:38
Jonny Brodzinski Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·19:28
Jonny Brodzinski faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·19:28
Will Cuylle Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (42), Alexis Lafrenière (31)
· ·
WSH 1·NYR 8
3rd·19:21
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·19:21
Icing
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·19:03
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·19:03
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·19:00
Braden Schneider Snap Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·18:55
Conor Sheary Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·18:23
Pierre-Luc Dubois shot blocked by Vladislav Gavrikov
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·18:16
Giveaway by Adam Fox
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·18:13
Aliaksei Protas Backhand saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·18:06
Vladislav Gavrikov Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·17:59
Tom Wilson hit Adam Fox
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·17:30
Tom Wilson Backhand Wide Left
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·17:22
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·17:22
Off-side
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:55
Ryan Leonard Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by J.T. Miller
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:34
Justin Sourdif hit Braden Schneider
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:30
Justin Sourdif Deflected Wide Left
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:27
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:27
Icing
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:17
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·NYR 7
3rd·16:15
Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
WSH 1·NYR 7

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -115/NYR -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Washington Capitals, 8–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Will Cuylle · NYR13:060.6876.9%69.2%13:06 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 76.9% CF · 69.2% xGF
Adam Sykora · NYR13:300.6173.3%83.5%13:30 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 73.3% CF · 83.5% xGF
Vincent Trocheck · NYR17:120.4766.7%55.8%17:12 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 66.7% CF · 55.8% xGF
Conor Sheary · NYR14:000.4466.7%73.2%14:00 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 66.7% CF · 73.2% xGF
Brandon Duhaime · WSH13:480.3328.1%35.8%13:48 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 28.1% CF · 35.8% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH19:120.3350.0%44.2%19:12 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 50.0% CF · 44.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR20–1.952+0.8620–1 · .952 SV% · +0.86 GSAx
Charlie Lindgren · WSH25–8.758-4.2225–8 · .758 SV% · -4.22 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.2%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL