Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

CAR

49-22-6

OTT

40-27-10

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -120

CAR · top performer

Andrei Svechnikov

RW · #37

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:27
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	2	-1	0	0	0	0	15:14
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	12:07
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	-1	0	9	0	0	13:46
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	17:53
T. HallLW · #71	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	15:09
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:06
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:57
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	14:04
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:44
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	14:44
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	0	4	2	0	4	16:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:37
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:10
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-2	1	2	2	0	19:33
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:31
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	21:23
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	-2	3	1	1	0	19:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	30	5	25	.833	58:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:51
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	13:43
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	3	6	2	2	14:40
D. CozensC · #24	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	16:16
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:09
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	12:45
C. GirouxRW · #28	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:01
R. GreigC · #71	0	2	2	3	4	2	0	16:30
S. PintoC · #12	1	1	0	3	2	3	0	17:10
T. StutzleC · #18	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	16:56
B. TkachukLW · #7	2	0	2	5	5	1	0	15:35
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	12:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrottyD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	16:20
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:59
J. SandersonD · #85	0	1	2	2	0	2	0	26:47
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	19:57
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:11
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	23:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	28	3	25	.893	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 18

OTT0@

CAR2

Apr 20

OTT2@

CAR3

Apr 23

CAR2@

OTT1

Apr 25

CAR4@

OTT2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-12055%

OTT+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat CAR 6-3. B. Tkachuk led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	2	0	1	3
OTT	2	1	3	6

Period scoring

CAR won 0 · OTT won 2

CAR

OTT

Play-by-play · 347 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·19:58
Sean Walker shot blocked by Cameron Crotty
·
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·19:25
Jesperi Kotkaniemi faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·19:25
Puck in Crowd
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·19:23
Nicolas Deslauriers shot blocked by Lassi Thomson
·
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·19:03
Jesperi Kotkaniemi faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·19:03
Claude Giroux Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (21), Jake Sanderson (38)
· ·
CAR 3·OTT 6
3rd·18:46
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·18:05
Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·18:00
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:50
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:47
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:47
Icing
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:43
Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:39
Ridly Greig hit Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:30
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:30
Taylor Hall Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sean Walker (19), Jackson Blake (27)
· ·
CAR 3·OTT 5
3rd·17:28
Taylor Hall Tip-In Wide Left
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·17:15
K'Andre Miller hit Nick Cousins
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:38
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:13
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·16:13
Icing
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:48
Takeaway by Ridly Greig
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:29
Jesperi Kotkaniemi hit Cameron Crotty
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:23
Nicolas Deslauriers hit Lassi Thomson
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·15:18
Giveaway by Cameron Crotty
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·14:47
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Jesperi Kotkaniemi
·
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·14:47
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·OTT 5
3rd·14:45
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
CAR 2·OTT 5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -120/OTT +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Carolina Hurricanes, 6–3.

OTT +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Cozens · OTT16:180.8360.6%83.7%16:18 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 60.6% CF · 83.7% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA15:360.7256.3%77.8%15:36 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 56.3% CF · 77.8% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT14:060.5970.0%89.0%14:06 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 70.0% CF · 89.0% xGF
Nick Cousins · OTT14:420.5553.8%66.3%14:42 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 53.8% CF · 66.3% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR14:480.4057.7%30.7%14:48 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 57.7% CF · 30.7% xGF
Tim Stützle · OTT17:060.4055.6%77.2%17:06 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 55.6% CF · 77.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT25–3.893-0.3825–3 · .893 SV% · -0.38 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR25–5.833-0.6025–5 · .833 SV% · -0.60 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.1%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.1%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesOttawa Senators

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