Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+3OTT
CAR

CAR

49-22-6

36
OTT

OTT

40-27-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -120

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Carolina Hurricanes, 6–3.

OTT +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Jackson Blake

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Dylan Cozens

Dylan Cozens

C · #24

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
CAR49-22-6OTT40-27-10
CAR

CAR

49-22-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

40-27-10

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Playoff series

Apr 18OTTOTT0@CARCAR2
Apr 20OTTOTT2@CARCAR3
Apr 23CARCAR2@OTTOTT1
Apr 25CARCAR4@OTTOTT2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-12055%
OTTOTT+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat CAR 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR2013
OTT2136

Period scoring

CAR won 0 · OTT won 2

2
2

1

0
1

2

1
3

3

CAR
OTT

Play-by-play · 347 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Sean Walker shot blocked by Cameron Crotty

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  4. 3rd·19:25

    Jesperi Kotkaniemi faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Puck in Crowd

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  6. 3rd·19:23

    Nicolas Deslauriers shot blocked by Lassi Thomson

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  7. 3rd·19:03

    Jesperi Kotkaniemi faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  8. 3rd·19:03

    Claude Giroux Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (21), Jake Sanderson (38)

    · ·

    CAR 3·OTT 6

  9. 3rd·18:46

    Taylor Hall Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  10. 3rd·18:05

    Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  11. 3rd·18:00

    Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  12. 3rd·17:50

    Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  13. 3rd·17:47

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  14. 3rd·17:47

    Icing

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  15. 3rd·17:43

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  16. 3rd·17:39

    Ridly Greig hit Alexander Nikishin

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  17. 3rd·17:30

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  18. 3rd·17:30

    Taylor Hall Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sean Walker (19), Jackson Blake (27)

    · ·

    CAR 3·OTT 5

  19. 3rd·17:28

    Taylor Hall Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  20. 3rd·17:15

    K'Andre Miller hit Nick Cousins

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  21. 3rd·16:38

    Drake Batherson shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  22. 3rd·16:13

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  23. 3rd·16:13

    Icing

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  24. 3rd·15:48

    Takeaway by Ridly Greig

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  25. 3rd·15:29

    Jesperi Kotkaniemi hit Cameron Crotty

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  26. 3rd·15:23

    Nicolas Deslauriers hit Lassi Thomson

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  27. 3rd·15:18

    Giveaway by Cameron Crotty

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  28. 3rd·14:47

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  29. 3rd·14:47

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 2·OTT 5

  30. 3rd·14:45

    K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    CAR 2·OTT 5

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

28

Shots

31

50.0

PCT

100.0

4

PIM

4

25

Faceoffs W

39

11

Blocks

22

16

Giveaways

19

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -120/OTT +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995
  • Seth JarvisCAR · C
    DIST MI39.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR