Live · 2
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FINAL+1STL
STL

STL

33-31-12

32
COL

COL

50-16-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -198

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 3–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Dylan Holloway

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Parker Kelly

Parker Kelly

C · #17

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
STL33-31-12COL50-16-10
STL

STL

33-31-12

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

50-16-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 1STLSTL1@COLCOL6
Apr 6STLSTL3@COLCOL2today
Apr 8COLCOL3@STLSTL1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+16438%
COLCOL-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat COL 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL1113
COL1102

Period scoring

STL won 1 · COL won 0

1
1

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

STL
COL

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 3·COL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 3·COL 2

  3. 3rd·19:41

    Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Brent Burns

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  4. 3rd·18:56

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Robert Thomas

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Off-side

    STL 3·COL 2

  6. 3rd·18:52

    Giveaway by Logan Mailloux

    STL 3·COL 2

  7. 3rd·18:33

    Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  8. 3rd·18:32

    Jimmy Snuggerud Tip-In saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  9. 3rd·18:09

    Logan Mailloux Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  10. 3rd·18:06

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  11. 3rd·18:06

    Gabriel Landeskog Slashing against Logan Mailloux

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  12. 3rd·18:04

    Gabriel Landeskog hit Logan Mailloux

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  13. 3rd·18:00

    Jack Finley faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  14. 3rd·18:00

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 3·COL 2

  15. 3rd·17:58

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  16. 3rd·17:29

    Giveaway by Artturi Lehkonen

    STL 3·COL 2

  17. 3rd·17:10

    Pius Suter faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  18. 3rd·17:10

    Objects on Ice

    STL 3·COL 2

  19. 3rd·17:10

    Robert Thomas Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (25), Dylan Holloway (24)

    · ·

    STL 3·COL 2

  20. 3rd·17:01

    Devon Toews hit Logan Mailloux

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  21. 3rd·16:33

    Jack Finley faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  22. 3rd·16:33

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 2·COL 2

  23. 3rd·16:31

    Brett Kulak Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  24. 3rd·16:16

    Brett Kulak Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  25. 3rd·16:13

    Parker Kelly Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  26. 3rd·15:03

    Josh Manson Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  27. 3rd·14:49

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Pius Suter

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

  28. 3rd·14:49

    Icing

    STL 2·COL 2

  29. 3rd·14:31

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    STL 2·COL 2

  30. 3rd·14:26

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin

    ·

    STL 2·COL 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

COL

Home

29

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

27

Faceoffs W

21

12

Blocks

9

17

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +164/COL -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Colton ParaykoSTL · D
    BURSTS9494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR