Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

STL

33-31-12

COL

50-16-10

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -198

STL · top performer

Robert Thomas

C · #18

3Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Brent Burns

D · #84

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	2	0	4	13:48
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	15:10
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	14:12
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:13
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	12:06
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	3	2	4	1	1	0	18:32
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	14:49
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:56
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	3	3	8	1	0	0	17:32
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	15:10
R. ThomasC · #18	3	0	3	5	0	0	0	20:13
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	22:19
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	21:50
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:01
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	19:47
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	23:14
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	12:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	28	2	26	.929	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:45
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:56
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:39
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	18:33
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	11:35
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:26
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	15:02
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:53
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-3	5	0	0	2	21:38
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	-3	4	1	0	0	21:56
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	21:25
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	8:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	11:38
B. BurnsD · #84	1	1	1	3	0	2	0	17:59
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	21:00
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	20:07
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	18:37
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	25:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	29	3	26	.897	58:35

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 1

STL1@

COL6

Apr 6

STL3@

COL2today

Apr 8

COL3@

STL1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+16438%

COL-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 46 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat COL 3-2. R. Thomas led the way — 3 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	1	1	1	3
COL	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

STL won 1 · COL won 0

STL

COL

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·19:41
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Brent Burns
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:56
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:56
Off-side
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:52
Giveaway by Logan Mailloux
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:33
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:32
Jimmy Snuggerud Tip-In saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:09
Logan Mailloux Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:06
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:06
Gabriel Landeskog Slashing against Logan Mailloux
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:04
Gabriel Landeskog hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:00
Jack Finley faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·18:00
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·17:58
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Artturi Lehkonen
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·17:10
Pius Suter faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·17:10
Objects on Ice
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·17:10
Robert Thomas Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (25), Dylan Holloway (24)
· ·
STL 3·COL 2
3rd·17:01
Devon Toews hit Logan Mailloux
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·16:33
Jack Finley faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·16:33
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·16:31
Brett Kulak Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·16:16
Brett Kulak Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·16:13
Parker Kelly Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·15:03
Josh Manson Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·14:49
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·14:49
Icing
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·14:31
Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon
STL 2·COL 2
3rd·14:26
Martin Necas shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin
·
STL 2·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +164/COL -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 3–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
69.6%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.6%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.6%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL