Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NJ

40-34-3

MTL

45-22-10

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasMTL -148

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	9:00
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:16
C. BrownRW · #16	1	0	1	2	3	1	10	20:57
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:14
C. GlassC · #12	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:05
B. HalonenLW · #48	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5:19
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	10:59
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	1	3	2	1	0	23:44
J. HughesC · #86	0	2	2	6	1	3	0	21:41
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:03
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	18:22
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	21:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	1	0	2	0	17	14:07
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:51
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	23:08
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	1	1	3	1	10	17:29
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	17:30
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	1	0	2	4	0	23:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	18	0	18	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	11:31
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:54
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:57
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:12
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	16:32
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:59
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:22
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	13:22
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:13
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	22:27
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	21:42
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	2	6	1	0	12:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-3	1	0	1	0	23:39
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	17:05
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	3	2	24:41
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	20:57
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	14:23
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	19	2	17	.895	57:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Nov 7

MTL3@

NJ4

Apr 4

MTL4@

NJ3

Apr 5

NJ3@

MTL0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+12445%

MTL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 59 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat MTL 3-0. J. Hughes led the way — 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	1	1	1	3
MTL	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

NJ won 3 · MTL won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:50
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:50
Net Dislodged Defensive Skater
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:45
Johnathan Kovacevic hit Zachary Bolduc
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:43
Alex Newhook Snap Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:14
Zachary Bolduc Tip-In High and Wide Left
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:08
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Brendan Gallagher
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:06
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Jack Hughes
· ·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:06
Connor Brown Misconduct
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·19:06
Icing
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·18:36
Connor Brown hit Lane Hutson
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·18:32
Cody Glass hit Ivan Demidov
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:25
Jonas Siegenthaler hit Cole Caufield
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:17
Noah Dobson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:05
Giveaway by Dougie Hamilton
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:01
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·17:01
Goalie Stopped
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:59
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:57
Cole Caufield Snap Shot Short
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Cody Glass
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:35
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:35
Connor Brown Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (47), Jesper Bratt (48)
· ·
NJ 3·MTL 0
3rd·16:11
Takeaway by Dawson Mercer
NJ 2·MTL 0
3rd·15:50
Giveaway by Timo Meier
NJ 2·MTL 0
3rd·15:45
Takeaway by Timo Meier
NJ 2·MTL 0
3rd·15:38
Nico Hischier hit Mike Matheson
·
NJ 2·MTL 0
3rd·15:27
Dawson Mercer shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
NJ 2·MTL 0
3rd·15:17
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
NJ 2·MTL 0
3rd·15:17
Goalie Stopped
NJ 2·MTL 0

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +124/MTL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 3–0.

NJ +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jack Hughes · NJD21:420.7658.1%67.5%21:42 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 58.1% CF · 67.5% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL21:000.5550.0%39.3%21:00 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 50.0% CF · 39.3% xGF
Oliver Kapanen · MTL13:180.5355.6%43.2%13:18 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 55.6% CF · 43.2% xGF
Nico Hischier · NJD23:540.4840.9%45.6%23:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 40.9% CF · 45.6% xGF
Timo Meier · NJD18:180.3338.2%38.0%18:18 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 38.2% CF · 38.0% xGF
Dawson Mercer · NJD21:480.2835.9%41.0%21:48 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 35.9% CF · 41.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Markstrom · FLA18–01.000+2.0018–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.00 GSAx
Jacob Fowler · MTL17–2.895+0.5117–2 · .895 SV% · +0.51 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
65.1%
P(MTL win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.1%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
63.7%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MTL vs NJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 108 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Jesper BrattNJ
1.0± 1.7high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL