Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

44-21-12

DET

40-29-8

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasMIN -135

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

3Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Patrick Kane

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	1	1	0	3	0	2	0	19:03
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:11
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	12:04
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:28
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	16:00
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	14:57
K. KaprizovLW · #97	3	0	0	5	0	1	0	19:53
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	12:28
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:14
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	-1	1	10	1	0	13:36
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	11:02
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	18:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	17:17
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	0	1	0	4	0	23:33
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	25:05
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	18:15
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	15:43
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	17:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	24	4	20	.833	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. CompherLW · #37	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:42
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:22
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:58
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	16:08
P. KaneRW · #88	1	1	0	5	0	0	2	19:09
M. KasperC · #92	0	1	-1	3	3	0	0	12:02
D. LarkinC · #71	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	17:55
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:40
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:55
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:08
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	17:25
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:34
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	21:39
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	23:13
A. JohanssonD · #20	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:52
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	1	1	1	2	0	1	2	15:04
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	27:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. TalbotG · #39	20	5	15	.750	58:24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Jan 23

DET3@

MIN4

Apr 5

MIN5@

DET4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-13557%

DET+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 51 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DET 5-4. K. Kaprizov led the way — 3 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	4	1	5
DET	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · DET won 2

MIN

DET

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:58
Takeaway by Dylan Larkin
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:52
Moritz Seider shot blocked by Matt Boldy
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:43
Lucas Raymond Tip-In saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:25
Moritz Seider Slap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:06
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:00
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·19:00
Puck in Netting
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:58
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:38
Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:38
Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:32
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:32
Icing
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:28
Jake Middleton Wrist Shot Wide Left
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:09
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·18:09
Kirill Kaprizov Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (40), Mats Zuccarello (36)
· ·
MIN 5·DET 4
3rd·17:52
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·17:48
Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Albert Johansson
· ·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·17:46
Matt Boldy Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·16:36
Matt Boldy shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·16:23
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·16:23
Patrick Kane Tripping against Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·15:39
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·15:23
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·15:23
Puck in Netting
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·15:21
Marcus Johansson Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
· ·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·15:12
Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
MIN 4·DET 4
3rd·15:02
Takeaway by Ryan Hartman
MIN 4·DET 4

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -135/DET +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–4.

DET +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

J.T. Compher · DET16:000.6638.2%51.3%16:00 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 38.2% CF · 51.3% xGF
Kirill Kaprizov · MIN19:540.5848.9%47.5%19:54 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 48.9% CF · 47.5% xGF
Marco Kasper · DET12:060.4648.1%62.8%12:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 48.1% CF · 62.8% xGF
Patrick Kane · DET19:240.3976.0%72.5%19:24 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 76.0% CF · 72.5% xGF
Lucas Raymond · DET17:480.3574.4%58.9%17:48 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 74.4% CF · 58.9% xGF
Quinn Hughes · MIN25:120.3147.5%52.9%25:12 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 47.5% CF · 52.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Filip Gustavsson · MIN20–4.833-1.7620–4 · .833 SV% · -1.76 GSAx
Cam Talbot · DET15–5.750-3.1715–5 · .750 SV% · -3.17 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.5%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.5%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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