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FINAL+1MIN
MIN

MIN

44-21-12

54
DET

DET

40-29-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasMIN -135

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–4.

DET +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Kirill Kaprizov

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane

RW · #88

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
4
MIN44-21-12DET40-29-8
MIN

MIN

44-21-12

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

40-29-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Jan 23DETDET3@MINMIN4
Apr 5MINMIN5@DETDET4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-13557%
DETDET+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DET 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MIN0415
DET1034

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · DET won 2

0
1

1

4
0

2

1
3

3

MIN
DET

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MIN 5·DET 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 5·DET 4

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Takeaway by Dylan Larkin

    MIN 5·DET 4

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Moritz Seider shot blocked by Matt Boldy

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Lucas Raymond Tip-In saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Moritz Seider Slap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  7. 3rd·19:12

    Giveaway by Matt Boldy

    MIN 5·DET 4

  8. 3rd·19:06

    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  10. 3rd·19:00

    Puck in Netting

    MIN 5·DET 4

  11. 3rd·18:58

    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  12. 3rd·18:38

    Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  13. 3rd·18:38

    Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Jake Middleton

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  14. 3rd·18:32

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  15. 3rd·18:32

    Icing

    MIN 5·DET 4

  16. 3rd·18:28

    Jake Middleton Wrist Shot Wide Left

    MIN 5·DET 4

  17. 3rd·18:09

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  18. 3rd·18:09

    Kirill Kaprizov Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (40), Mats Zuccarello (36)

    · ·

    MIN 5·DET 4

  19. 3rd·17:52

    Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  20. 3rd·17:48

    Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Albert Johansson

    · ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  21. 3rd·17:46

    Matt Boldy Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  22. 3rd·16:36

    Matt Boldy shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  23. 3rd·16:23

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  24. 3rd·16:23

    Patrick Kane Tripping against Quinn Hughes

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  25. 3rd·15:39

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  26. 3rd·15:23

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  27. 3rd·15:23

    Puck in Netting

    MIN 4·DET 4

  28. 3rd·15:21

    Marcus Johansson Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    · ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  29. 3rd·15:12

    Kirill Kaprizov Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 4·DET 4

  30. 3rd·15:02

    Takeaway by Ryan Hartman

    MIN 4·DET 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

20

Shots

24

50.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

35

25

Blocks

8

13

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -135/DET +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR