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FINAL+1PHI
BOS

BOS

43-26-9

12
PHI

PHI

39-26-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-1VegasPHI -162

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Boston Bruins, 2–1 in overtime.

BOS +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Casey Mittelstadt

Casey Mittelstadt

C · #11

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
1
2
BOS43-26-9PHI39-26-12
BOS

BOS

43-26-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

39-26-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

4

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jan 30PHIPHI3@BOSBOS6
Feb 28BOSBOS1@PHIPHI3
Apr 5BOSBOS1@PHIPHI2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+13642%
PHIPHI-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
BOS00101
PHI10012

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · PHI won 2

0
1

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

0
1

OT

BOS
PHI

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:31

    Game End

    BOS 1·PHI 2

  2. OT·2:31

    End of OT

    BOS 1·PHI 2

  3. OT·2:31

    Porter Martone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (32), Trevor Zegras (39)

    · ·

    BOS 1·PHI 2

  4. OT·2:29

    Porter Martone Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  5. OT·2:16

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Elias Lindholm

    · ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  6. OT·2:16

    Charlie McAvoy High-sticking against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  7. OT·2:09

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Elias Lindholm

    · ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  8. OT·2:09

    David Pastrnak Hooking against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  9. OT·1:36

    Cam York Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  10. OT·1:27

    David Pastrnak hit Tyson Foerster

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  11. OT·1:22

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against David Pastrnak

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  12. OT·1:22

    Puck in Netting

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  13. OT·1:20

    Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  14. OT·0:35

    Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Noah Cates

    · ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  15. OT·0:35

    Goalie Stopped

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  16. OT·0:33

    Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  17. OT·0:30

    Giveaway by Pavel Zacha

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  18. OT·0:13

    Giveaway by David Pastrnak

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  19. OT·0:00

    Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  20. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  21. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  22. 3rd·19:13

    Nikita Zadorov Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  23. 3rd·19:09

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Fraser Minten

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  24. 3rd·19:09

    Icing

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  25. 3rd·18:40

    Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  26. 3rd·18:40

    Goalie Stopped

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  27. 3rd·18:37

    Rasmus Ristolainen Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  28. 3rd·18:14

    Elias Lindholm hit Jamie Drysdale

    · ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  29. 3rd·16:58

    Charlie McAvoy Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

  30. 3rd·16:45

    Tyson Foerster Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 1·PHI 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

19

Shots

31

100.0

PCT

20.0

12

PIM

4

24

Faceoffs W

35

12

Blocks

14

18

Giveaways

8

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·BOS +136/PHI -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Tyson FoersterPHI · RW
    SHOT MPH92.796
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR