Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at PHI?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

BOS

43-26-9

PHI

39-26-12

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-1VegasPHI -162

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Porter Martone

RW · #94

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:27
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-1	2	0	1	4	18:57
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:52
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:04
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:46
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	11:20
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	19:06
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:08
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:18
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	-1	4	2	0	4	21:39
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:45
P. ZachaC · #18	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	16:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	16:00
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:47
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	16:16
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	0	2	2	1	4	25:39
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:57
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KorpisaloG · #70	31	2	29	.935	62:31

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:42
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	13:35
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:52
C. DvorakC · #22	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	20:04
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:27
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	10:43
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	10:57
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	18:11
P. MartoneRW · #94	1	1	1	5	2	0	0	17:12
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:41
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	17:02
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	12:01
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	22:15
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	22:47
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	25:52
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	13:56
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	20:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	19	1	18	.947	62:31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jan 30

PHI3@

BOS6

Feb 28

BOS1@

PHI3

Apr 5

BOS1@

PHI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13642%

PHI-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 69 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 2-1. P. Martone led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
BOS	0	0	1	0	1
PHI	1	0	0	1	2

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · PHI won 2

BOS

PHI

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:31
Game End
BOS 1·PHI 2
OT·2:31
End of OT
BOS 1·PHI 2
OT·2:31
Porter Martone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (32), Trevor Zegras (39)
· ·
BOS 1·PHI 2
OT·2:29
Porter Martone Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·2:16
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·2:16
Charlie McAvoy High-sticking against Trevor Zegras
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·2:09
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·2:09
David Pastrnak Hooking against Christian Dvorak
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·1:36
Cam York Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·1:27
David Pastrnak hit Tyson Foerster
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·1:22
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against David Pastrnak
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·1:22
Puck in Netting
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·1:20
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:35
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Noah Cates
· ·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:35
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:33
Owen Tippett Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:30
Giveaway by Pavel Zacha
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:13
Giveaway by David Pastrnak
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:13
Nikita Zadorov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:09
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:09
Icing
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:40
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:40
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:37
Rasmus Ristolainen Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:14
Elias Lindholm hit Jamie Drysdale
· ·
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:58
Charlie McAvoy Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
BOS 1·PHI 1
3rd·16:45
Tyson Foerster Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 1·PHI 1

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·BOS +136/PHI -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Boston Bruins, 2–1 in overtime.

BOS +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Porter Martone · PHI17:180.5861.3%53.9%17:18 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 61.3% CF · 53.9% xGF
Pavel Zacha · BOS16:540.4638.2%33.2%16:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 38.2% CF · 33.2% xGF
Tyson Foerster · PHI18:300.3945.8%55.4%18:30 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 45.8% CF · 55.4% xGF
Noah Cates · PHI14:000.3268.0%72.8%14:00 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 68.0% CF · 72.8% xGF
Sean Kuraly · BOS11:300.3045.0%41.9%11:30 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 45.0% CF · 41.9% xGF
Travis Konecny · PHI19:120.2866.7%66.3%19:12 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 66.7% CF · 66.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joonas Korpisalo · BOS29–2.935+1.3329–2 · .935 SV% · +1.33 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI18–1.947+0.4418–1 · .947 SV% · +0.44 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(PHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(PHI win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at PHI?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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