NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

FLA

37-37-3

PIT

40-22-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesPIT wins series 3-0VegasPIT -250

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Florida Panthers, 5–2.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Vinnie Hinostroza

C · #24

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

FLA37-37-3

PIT40-22-16

FLA37-37-3PIT40-22-16

FLA

37-37-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

40-22-16

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

PIT wins series 3-0

Oct 23

PIT5@

FLA3

Apr 4

FLA4@

PIT9

Apr 5

FLA2@

PIT5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+20533%

PIT-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat FLA 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	1	2
PIT	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · PIT won 2

FLA

PIT

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·19:50
Gustav Forsling Snap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·19:45
Parker Wotherspoon hit Jesper Boqvist
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:54
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:54
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:52
Sam Bennett Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:19
Giveaway by Seth Jones
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:05
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:05
Bryan Rust Delaying Game - Puck over glass
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:03
Nolan Foote hit Connor Clifton
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:52
Tomas Nosek hit Ryan Shea
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:34
Sam Bennett Wrap-around Wide Left
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:14
A.J. Greer hit Kris Letang
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:08
Dmitry Kulikov shot blocked by Kris Letang
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:01
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:01
Icing
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:34
Takeaway by Noel Acciari
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:21
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:19
Eetu Luostarinen Batted Hit Left Post
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:19
Matthew Tkachuk Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:47
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:45
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:45
Puck Frozen - Goalie
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:42
Noah Gregor Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:38
Cole Schwindt hit Connor Clifton
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:35
Noah Gregor hit Parker Wotherspoon
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·14:51
Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·14:45
Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 2·PIT 5

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

14.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +205/PIT -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Sam BennettFLA · C
DIST MI239.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+205

Close price

+205

Open no-vig

31.5%

Close no-vig

31.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PIT vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands