Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at PIT?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

FLA

37-37-3

PIT

40-22-16

NHLSun, Apr 5FinalSeriesPIT wins series 3-0VegasPIT -250

FLA · top performer

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	21:28
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	12:45
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	5:37
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	15:51
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	8:09
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	9:01
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	1	4	16:59
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:19
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	-1	1	4	0	2	20:38
C. SchwindtRW · #79	1	0	-2	3	3	0	0	9:45
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	0	3	0	0	9	21:09
C. VerhaegheC · #23	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	22:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:58
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	-3	0	0	2	0	12:36
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	0	4	0	2	0	24:21
S. JonesD · #3	0	1	-3	1	0	0	0	24:50
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	21:59
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	14:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	23	5	18	.783	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	18:19
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:32
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	13:37
S. CrosbyC · #87	1	2	2	4	1	0	0	17:34
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	18:30
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	11:35
E. MalkinC · #71	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	17:14
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	11:45
T. NovakC · #18	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:29
R. RakellRW · #67	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:16
B. RustRW · #17	1	1	2	3	0	1	6	18:50
E. SoderblomLW · #25	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	2	0	3	4	4	17:31
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	17:17
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:27
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	16:06
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:48
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	1	0	2	0	7	18:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	31	2	29	.935	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

14.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT wins series 3-0

Oct 23

PIT5@

FLA3

Apr 4

FLA4@

PIT9

Apr 5

FLA2@

PIT5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+20533%

PIT-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat FLA 5-2. S. Crosby led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	1	2
PIT	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · PIT won 2

FLA

PIT

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·19:50
Gustav Forsling Snap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·19:45
Parker Wotherspoon hit Jesper Boqvist
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:54
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:54
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:52
Sam Bennett Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:19
Giveaway by Seth Jones
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:05
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:05
Bryan Rust Delaying Game - Puck over glass
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·18:03
Nolan Foote hit Connor Clifton
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:52
Tomas Nosek hit Ryan Shea
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:34
Sam Bennett Wrap-around Wide Left
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:14
A.J. Greer hit Kris Letang
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:08
Dmitry Kulikov shot blocked by Kris Letang
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:01
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·17:01
Icing
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:34
Takeaway by Noel Acciari
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:21
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:19
Eetu Luostarinen Batted Hit Left Post
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·16:19
Matthew Tkachuk Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:47
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:45
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:45
Puck Frozen - Goalie
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:42
Noah Gregor Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:38
Cole Schwindt hit Connor Clifton
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·15:35
Noah Gregor hit Parker Wotherspoon
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·14:51
Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 2·PIT 5
3rd·14:45
Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 2·PIT 5

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +205/PIT -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Florida Panthers, 5–2.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Matthew Tkachuk · FLA21:180.6974.5%66.4%21:18 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 74.5% CF · 66.4% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT18:240.6250.0%63.4%18:24 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 50.0% CF · 63.4% xGF
Bryan Rust · PIT19:060.5451.4%69.3%19:06 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 51.4% CF · 69.3% xGF
Sidney Crosby · PIT17:360.4948.4%60.9%17:36 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 48.4% CF · 60.9% xGF
Ben Kindel · PIT11:480.4559.1%62.6%11:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 59.1% CF · 62.6% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA21:300.4581.4%80.1%21:30 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 81.4% CF · 80.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Arturs Silovs · PIT29–2.935+0.6529–2 · .935 SV% · +0.65 GSAx
Daniil Tarasov · FLA18–5.783-2.0818–5 · .783 SV% · -2.08 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
60.9%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.9%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.9%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+205

Close price

+205

Open no-vig

31.5%

Close no-vig

31.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at PIT?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersPittsburgh Penguins

Elsewhere in the NHL