Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

OTT

34-24-9

WSH

34-27-8

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -135

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Tom Wilson

RW · #43

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:15
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:05
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	13:20
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:25
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:42
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:41
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	13:20
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:41
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	19:04
T. StutzleC · #18	1	0	-1	4	4	0	0	21:09
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	18:30
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	1	-2	2	2	2	0	28:06
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	9:33
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	2	1	4	2	20:07
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:08
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	24:04
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-2	4	1	1	0	20:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	2	21	.913	57:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	15:43
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:05
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	13:08
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:26
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:19
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	11:51
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	17:34
A. OvechkinLW · #8	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:57
A. ProtasC · #21	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:38
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	11:54
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:15
T. WilsonRW · #43	1	0	1	5	5	1	4	17:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	18:01
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	1	0	3	5	0	21:52
C. HutsonD · #44	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:24
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	23:31
R. SandinD · #38	0	1	0	0	2	4	0	20:09
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	17:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	35	1	34	.971	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Oct 25

OTT7@

WSH1

Jan 1

WSH3@

OTT4

Mar 18

OTT1@

WSH4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-13557%

WSH+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat OTT 4-1. T. Wilson led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	0	0	1	1
WSH	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

OTT won 0 · WSH won 2

OTT

WSH

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 1·WSH 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 1·WSH 4
3rd·19:34
Lars Eller faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
OTT 1·WSH 4
3rd·19:34
Cole Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none
OTT 1·WSH 4
3rd·19:04
Dylan Strome Tip-In Wide Left
·
OTT 1·WSH 3
3rd·18:48
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
OTT 1·WSH 3
3rd·18:48
Tyler Kleven High-sticking against Anthony Beauvillier
·
OTT 1·WSH 3
3rd·18:28
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
OTT 1·WSH 3
3rd·18:28
Aliaksei Protas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (24)
·
OTT 1·WSH 3
3rd·18:22
Brady Tkachuk Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Drake Batherson
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:39
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Connor McMichael
·
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:39
Goalie Stopped
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:37
Tim Stützle Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:33
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:33
Icing
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:19
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:19
Tim Stützle Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (31), Thomas Chabot (23)
· ·
OTT 1·WSH 2
3rd·17:04
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·17:04
Icing
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:59
Tom Wilson Snap Shot Wide Left
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:35
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:35
Puck in Netting
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:29
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:29
Hand Pass
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·16:22
Takeaway by Shane Pinto
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·15:54
Matt Roy hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·15:31
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
·
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·15:29
Drake Batherson Slap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 0·WSH 2
3rd·14:20
Matt Roy Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 0·WSH 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -135/WSH +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Ottawa Senators, 4–1.

WSH +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ethen Frank · WSH13:300.6458.6%64.6%13:30 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 58.6% CF · 64.6% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA18:420.5975.0%76.7%18:42 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 75.0% CF · 76.7% xGF
Shane Pinto · OTT19:300.5650.0%49.3%19:30 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 50.0% CF · 49.3% xGF
Tim Stützle · OTT21:240.5167.4%64.7%21:24 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 67.4% CF · 64.7% xGF
Dylan Cozens · OTT18:300.4373.7%74.3%18:30 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 73.7% CF · 74.3% xGF
Anthony Beauvillier · WSH15:540.3954.1%56.0%15:54 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 54.1% CF · 56.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH34–1.971+2.7834–1 · .971 SV% · +2.78 GSAx
Linus Ullmark · OTT21–2.913+0.7021–2 · .913 SV% · +0.70 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(WSH win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsWashington Capitals

Elsewhere in the NHL