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FINAL+3WSH
OTT

OTT

34-24-9

14
WSH

WSH

34-27-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -135

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Ottawa Senators, 4–1.

WSH +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux

RW · #28

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
OTT34-24-9WSH34-27-8
OTT

OTT

34-24-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

34-27-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Oct 25OTTOTT7@WSHWSH1
Jan 1WSHWSH3@OTTOTT4
Mar 18OTTOTT1@WSHWSH4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-13557%
WSHWSH+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat OTT 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT0011
WSH0224

Period scoring

OTT won 0 · WSH won 2

0
0

1

0
2

2

1
2

3

OTT
WSH

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 1·WSH 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 1·WSH 4

  3. 3rd·19:34

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 4

  4. 3rd·19:34

    Cole Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none

    OTT 1·WSH 4

  5. 3rd·19:04

    Dylan Strome Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 3

  6. 3rd·18:48

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 3

  7. 3rd·18:48

    Tyler Kleven High-sticking against Anthony Beauvillier

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 3

  8. 3rd·18:28

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 3

  9. 3rd·18:28

    Aliaksei Protas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (24)

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 3

  10. 3rd·18:22

    Brady Tkachuk Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  11. 3rd·17:42

    Giveaway by Drake Batherson

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  12. 3rd·17:39

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Connor McMichael

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  13. 3rd·17:39

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  14. 3rd·17:37

    Tim Stützle Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  15. 3rd·17:33

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  16. 3rd·17:33

    Icing

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  17. 3rd·17:19

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  18. 3rd·17:19

    Tim Stützle Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (31), Thomas Chabot (23)

    · ·

    OTT 1·WSH 2

  19. 3rd·17:04

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  20. 3rd·17:04

    Icing

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  21. 3rd·16:59

    Tom Wilson Snap Shot Wide Left

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  22. 3rd·16:35

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  23. 3rd·16:35

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  24. 3rd·16:29

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  25. 3rd·16:29

    Hand Pass

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  26. 3rd·16:22

    Takeaway by Shane Pinto

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  27. 3rd·15:54

    Matt Roy hit Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  28. 3rd·15:31

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  29. 3rd·15:29

    Drake Batherson Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

  30. 3rd·14:20

    Matt Roy Snap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 0·WSH 2

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

35

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

37

Faceoffs W

18

12

Blocks

20

12

Giveaways

12

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -135/WSH +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495
  • Brandon DuhaimeWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH23.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR