Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at CAR?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

PIT

34-18-16

CAR

43-19-6

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-1VegasCAR -135

PIT · top performer

Erik Karlsson

D · #65

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Sean Walker

D · #26

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	-2	5	1	1	0	13:18
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:57
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	16:49
S. CrosbyC · #87	1	1	0	4	2	1	4	18:33
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	-1	3	5	1	0	12:53
B. KindelC · #81	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:36
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	21:43
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	17:24
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:44
R. RakellRW · #67	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	20:46
B. RustRW · #17	1	0	2	5	0	0	0	18:33
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	9:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	1	0	3	4	0	14:34
E. KarlssonD · #65	2	1	0	4	0	1	0	24:02
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	25:28
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	21:59
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	12:39
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	1	1	0	2	1	2	18:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	44	6	38	.864	64:31

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	-2	5	2	0	0	20:56
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	2	1	3	0	1	0	18:06
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:51
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	3	2	1	1	0	0	17:50
T. HallLW · #71	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	15:38
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	8:39
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	-2	5	1	0	0	20:03
J. MartinookLW · #48	1	0	2	5	2	0	0	16:38
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:55
J. StaalC · #11	0	1	1	0	4	2	2	18:00
L. StankovenC · #22	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	15:19
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-3	0	3	0	4	18:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	20:43
K. MillerD · #19	1	0	3	1	3	2	2	25:19
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	16:20
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:34
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	-2	2	0	1	0	23:52
S. WalkerD · #26	1	1	2	7	2	1	0	22:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	35	5	30	.857	64:31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR leads series 2-1

Dec 31

CAR1@

PIT5

Mar 10

PIT4@

CAR5

Mar 18

PIT5@

CAR6today

Mar 22

CAR5@

PIT1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+11447%

CAR-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PIT 6-5. S. Walker led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PIT	0	1	4	0	5
CAR	1	1	3	1	6

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CAR won 2

PIT

CAR

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:31
Game End
PIT 5·CAR 6
OT·4:31
End of OT
PIT 5·CAR 6
OT·4:31
Sean Walker Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (45), Seth Jarvis (26)
· ·
PIT 5·CAR 6
OT·4:12
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
OT·4:07
Takeaway by Kris Letang
PIT 5·CAR 5
OT·2:25
Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
OT·2:14
Kris Letang Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
OT·0:00
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Bryan Rust
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:55
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:55
Icing
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:26
Jordan Martinook hit Parker Wotherspoon
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:21
Giveaway by Jordan Martinook
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:20
Nikolaj Ehlers hit Thomas Novak
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:20
Takeaway by Jordan Martinook
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:16
Jordan Martinook Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:13
Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·19:09
Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·18:37
Taylor Hall Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·18:25
Connor Dewar hit K'Andre Miller
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·18:03
Noel Acciari Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·17:46
Sidney Crosby Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·17:30
Sidney Crosby Backhand Hit Right Post
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·17:22
Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·17:09
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·17:09
K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (16), Nikolaj Ehlers (36)
· ·
PIT 5·CAR 5
3rd·16:58
Logan Stankoven Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:43
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers
PIT 5·CAR 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +114/CAR -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 6–5 in overtime.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Noel Acciari · PIT13:240.9142.1%63.7%13:24 TOI · 0.91 iXG · 42.1% CF · 63.7% xGF
Bryan Rust · PIT18:480.7543.3%45.5%18:48 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 43.3% CF · 45.5% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR15:300.6760.6%47.5%15:30 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 60.6% CF · 47.5% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR20:120.6563.2%54.2%20:12 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 63.2% CF · 54.2% xGF
Connor Dewar · PIT13:000.6137.5%59.6%13:00 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 37.5% CF · 59.6% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR21:120.6164.9%60.7%21:12 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 64.9% CF · 60.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR30–5.857-0.3930–5 · .857 SV% · -0.39 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT38–6.864-1.5738–6 · .864 SV% · -1.57 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
62.2%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.2%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.2%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at CAR?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL