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FINAL+1CAR
PIT

PIT

34-18-16

56
CAR

CAR

43-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-1VegasCAR -135

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 6–5 in overtime.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Jackson Blake

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
5
6
PIT34-18-16CAR43-19-6
PIT

PIT

34-18-16

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

43-19-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

10

Season series

CAR leads series 2-1

Dec 31CARCAR1@PITPIT5
Mar 10PITPIT4@CARCAR5
Mar 18PITPIT5@CARCAR6today
Mar 22CARCAR5@PITPIT1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+11447%
CARCAR-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PIT 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
PIT01405
CAR11316

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CAR won 2

0
1

1

1
1

2

4
3

3

0
1

OT

PIT
CAR

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:31

    Game End

    PIT 5·CAR 6

  2. OT·4:31

    End of OT

    PIT 5·CAR 6

  3. OT·4:31

    Sean Walker Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (45), Seth Jarvis (26)

    · ·

    PIT 5·CAR 6

  4. OT·4:12

    Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  5. OT·4:07

    Takeaway by Kris Letang

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  6. OT·2:25

    Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  7. OT·2:14

    Kris Letang Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  8. OT·0:00

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  9. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  10. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  11. 3rd·19:55

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  12. 3rd·19:55

    Icing

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  13. 3rd·19:26

    Jordan Martinook hit Parker Wotherspoon

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  14. 3rd·19:21

    Giveaway by Jordan Martinook

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  15. 3rd·19:20

    Nikolaj Ehlers hit Thomas Novak

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  16. 3rd·19:20

    Takeaway by Jordan Martinook

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  17. 3rd·19:16

    Jordan Martinook Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  18. 3rd·19:13

    Jalen Chatfield shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  19. 3rd·19:09

    Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  20. 3rd·18:37

    Taylor Hall Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  21. 3rd·18:25

    Connor Dewar hit K'Andre Miller

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  22. 3rd·18:03

    Noel Acciari Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  23. 3rd·17:46

    Sidney Crosby Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  24. 3rd·17:30

    Sidney Crosby Backhand Hit Right Post

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  25. 3rd·17:22

    Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  26. 3rd·17:09

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  27. 3rd·17:09

    K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (16), Nikolaj Ehlers (36)

    · ·

    PIT 5·CAR 5

  28. 3rd·16:58

    Logan Stankoven Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 4

  29. 3rd·16:43

    Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 5·CAR 4

  30. 3rd·16:30

    Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers

    PIT 5·CAR 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

35

Shots

44

25.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

10

28

Faceoffs W

31

16

Blocks

9

16

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +114/CAR -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR