Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NJ

35-31-2

NYR

28-32-8

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesNJ leads series 2-0VegasNJ -125

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

3Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Vladislav Gavrikov

D · #44

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	10:06
J. BrattLW · #63	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	15:14
C. BrownRW · #16	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	16:03
P. CotterLW · #47	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	8:57
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:25
A. GritsyukRW · #81	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:08
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:58
N. HischierC · #13	1	1	-1	3	0	1	0	18:52
J. HughesC · #86	1	2	1	5	0	0	0	17:48
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	0	5	0	2	0	18:57
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:20
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	9:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	1	1	2	3	3	0	18:43
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	18:27
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	23:52
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	3	2	2	1	2	20:53
S. NemecD · #17	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	18:53
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	17:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	18	3	15	.833	59:28

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	8:55
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:13
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	8:33
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	17:09
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	8:40
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	1	1	5	0	0	2	19:33
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	17:35
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	19:00
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9:13
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:10
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:34
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	0	-1	2	3	1	2	21:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	19:19
A. FoxD · #23	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	26:44
V. GavrikovD · #44	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	26:31
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	1	-1	1	2	1	0	21:11
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	19:26
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	39	6	33	.846	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ leads series 2-0

Mar 7

NYR3@

NJ6

Mar 18

NJ6@

NYR3today

Mar 31

NJ1@

NYR4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ-12556%

NYR+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat NYR 6-3. J. Hughes led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	2	1	3	6
NYR	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

NJ won 2 · NYR won 0

NYR

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·19:40
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·19:40
Puck in Crowd
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·19:17
Cody Glass faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·19:17
Icing
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·19:06
Giveaway by Brenden Dillon
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·18:07
Taylor Raddysh Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·17:53
Giveaway by Vladislav Gavrikov
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·17:46
Takeaway by Luke Hughes
·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Jonathan Quick
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·16:57
Braden Schneider hit Cody Glass
·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·16:56
Takeaway by Cody Glass
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Jonas Siegenthaler
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·16:22
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·16:22
Jesper Bratt Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (11), Jack Hughes (36)
· ·
NJ 6·NYR 3
3rd·16:07
Jesper Bratt hit Mika Zibanejad
·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:49
Jack Hughes faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
· ·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:49
Icing
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:42
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Jack Hughes
· ·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:42
Goalie Stopped
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:40
Timo Meier Slap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:34
Timo Meier Tip-In Wide Left
·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:07
Vladislav Gavrikov Snap Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·15:00
Giveaway by Jacob Markstrom
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·13:47
Mika Zibanejad hit Luke Hughes
· ·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·13:29
Lenni Hameenaho hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·13:24
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·13:24
Goalie Stopped
NJ 5·NYR 3
3rd·13:21
Lenni Hameenaho Snap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NJ 5·NYR 3

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ -125/NYR +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into New York Rangers and beat them, 6–3.

NJ -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Timo Meier · NJD19:121.0360.4%65.4%19:12 TOI · 1.03 iXG · 60.4% CF · 65.4% xGF
Alexis Lafrenière · NYR19:360.6354.3%51.9%19:36 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 54.3% CF · 51.9% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD18:060.5878.3%90.0%18:06 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 78.3% CF · 90.0% xGF
Dawson Mercer · NJD19:300.5758.7%62.0%19:30 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 58.7% CF · 62.0% xGF
Nico Hischier · NJD18:540.3957.8%61.2%18:54 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 57.8% CF · 61.2% xGF
Maxim Tsyplakov · CGY9:480.3968.8%91.2%9:48 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 68.8% CF · 91.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Markstrom · FLA15–3.833-1.2115–3 · .833 SV% · -1.21 GSAx
Jonathan Quick · NYR33–6.846-2.3233–6 · .846 SV% · -2.32 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL