Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

43-15-10

COL

44-13-10

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasCOL -142

DAL · top performer

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Cale Makar

D · #8

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	11:41
N. BastianRW · #11	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	9:14
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:56
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	13:05
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:13
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15:11
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	19:35
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	8:59
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	16:49
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	20:20
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	21:08
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:18
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	1	2	0	5	0	22:45
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	28:12
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	24:01
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:15
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	14:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	34	1	33	.971	64:55

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	3:23
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	3:50
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:52
I. IvanC · #82	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	3:43
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	20:46
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	0	11	1	0	14:45
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:08
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	26:40
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	24:49
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	27:27
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:56
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	15:35
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:12
C. MakarD · #8	1	0	0	4	1	1	2	24:39
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:53
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	17:12
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	25:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	18	1	17	.944	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Oct 12

DAL5@

COL4

Mar 7

COL5@

DAL4

Mar 19

DAL2@

COL1today

Apr 4

COL2@

DAL0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+12045%

COL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat COL 2-1. J. Robertson led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
DAL	0	1	0	0	1	2
COL	1	0	0	0	0	1

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · COL won 1

DAL

COL

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Wyatt Johnston Goal Wrist Shot
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Martin Necas Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Matt Duchene Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Valeri Nichushkin Backhand saved by Jake Oettinger
· ·
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Jason Robertson Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood
· ·
DAL 1·COL 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
DAL 1·COL 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·4:39
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·4:30
Takeaway by Nathan MacKinnon
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·4:19
Takeaway by Cale Makar
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·3:46
Valeri Nichushkin Deflected saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·3:20
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·3:19
Jason Robertson Wrap-around saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·3:16
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·2:52
Takeaway by Sam Malinski
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·2:44
Thomas Harley Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood
· ·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·2:08
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·1:29
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·1:29
Puck in Netting
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·1:27
Wyatt Johnston shot blocked by Cale Makar
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·0:52
Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·0:16
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·0:16
Goalie Stopped
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·0:14
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·0:00
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
DAL 1·COL 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DAL 1·COL 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL +120/COL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 2–1.

DAL +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(COL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL