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FINAL+1DAL
DAL

DAL

43-15-10

21
COL

COL

44-13-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasCOL -142

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 2–1.

DAL +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Nathan Bastian

Nathan Bastian

RW · #11

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Nazem Kadri

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
1
DAL43-15-10COL44-13-10
DAL

DAL

43-15-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

44-13-10

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Oct 12DALDAL5@COLCOL4
Mar 7COLCOL5@DALDAL4
Mar 19DALDAL2@COLCOL1today
Apr 4COLCOL2@DALDAL0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL+12045%
COLCOL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat COL 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
DAL010012
COL100001

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · COL won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

0
0

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

DAL
COL

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    DAL 1·COL 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    DAL 1·COL 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    DAL 1·COL 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Wyatt Johnston Goal Wrist Shot

    DAL 1·COL 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Matt Duchene Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Valeri Nichushkin Backhand saved by Jake Oettinger

    · ·

    DAL 1·COL 0

  9. SO·0:00

    Jason Robertson Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    DAL 1·COL 0

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    DAL 1·COL 0

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    DAL 1·COL 1

  12. OT·4:39

    Jason Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  13. OT·4:30

    Takeaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    DAL 1·COL 1

  14. OT·4:19

    Takeaway by Cale Makar

    DAL 1·COL 1

  15. OT·3:46

    Valeri Nichushkin Deflected saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  16. OT·3:20

    Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  17. OT·3:19

    Jason Robertson Wrap-around saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  18. OT·3:16

    Jason Robertson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  19. OT·2:52

    Takeaway by Sam Malinski

    DAL 1·COL 1

  20. OT·2:44

    Thomas Harley Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  21. OT·2:08

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  22. OT·1:29

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  23. OT·1:29

    Puck in Netting

    DAL 1·COL 1

  24. OT·1:27

    Wyatt Johnston shot blocked by Cale Makar

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  25. OT·0:52

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  26. OT·0:16

    Matt Duchene faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  27. OT·0:16

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 1·COL 1

  28. OT·0:14

    Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  29. OT·0:00

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    DAL 1·COL 1

  30. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DAL 1·COL 1

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

COL

Home

18

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

6

25

Faceoffs W

34

20

Blocks

6

14

Giveaways

12

6

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL +120/COL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793
  • Devon ToewsCOL · D
    DIST MI46.191

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR