Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

STL

27-30-11

CGY

27-34-7

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSTL -142

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Connor Zary

C · #47

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	17:01
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:01
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	15:01
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:28
D. HollowayLW · #81	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	21:40
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:18
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-1	0	5	0	4	12:26
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	18:42
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:32
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	12:20
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	19:49
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	29:06
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	21:58
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:11
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	26:56
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	1	5	3	1	0	24:20
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	9:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	31	1	30	.968	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:53
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	-1	5	4	1	4	18:01
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	16:16
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	17:08
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:09
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:29
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:44
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	14:34
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	10:22
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:21
R. StromeC · #22	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:50
C. ZaryC · #47	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-1	1	3	2	2	21:02
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:53
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:07
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	23:03
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:56
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	22:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	26	1	25	.962	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Oct 11

STL4@

CGY2

Nov 12

CGY2@

STL3

Mar 19

STL1@

CGY2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-14259%

CGY+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat STL 2-1. C. Zary led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
STL	0	1	0	0	0	1
CGY	1	0	0	0	1	2

Period scoring

STL won 1 · CGY won 2

STL

CGY

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Matvei Gridin Goal Snap Shot
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Jimmy Snuggerud Backhand saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Joel Farabee Goal Wrist Shot
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Jake Neighbours Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Morgan Frost Backhand Wide Right
·
STL 0·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
STL 0·CGY 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·4:59
Pavel Buchnevich Backhand saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·4:55
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Kevin Bahl
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·4:21
Hunter Brzustewicz shot blocked by Logan Mailloux
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·4:17
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·4:17
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·4:15
Morgan Frost Tip-In saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:53
Victor Olofsson shot blocked by Cam Fowler
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:38
Takeaway by Zayne Parekh
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:30
Victor Olofsson Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:23
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:23
Timeout - Home
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:23
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:22
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·3:17
Victor Olofsson Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·2:32
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·2:23
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·2:23
Timeout - Visitor
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·2:23
Pavel Buchnevich High-sticking against Connor Zary
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·2:17
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
OT·2:07
Pavel Buchnevich Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 1·CGY 1

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -142/CGY +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off St. Louis Blues, 2–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(CGY win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(CGY win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL