Mar 6, 26sim 96
212
13(H)6
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1CGY
STL
27-30-11
12
CGY
27-34-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
algary Flames held off St. Louis Blues, 2–1.
CGY +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
STL · top performer
Dylan Holloway
LW · #81
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
CGY · top performer
Ryan Strome
C · #22
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final/SO
STL27-30-11
12
CGY27-34-7
STL27-30-11CGY27-34-7
STL
27-30-11
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CGY
27-34-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
14
PIM
10
Season series
STL wins series 2-1
Oct 11STL4@CGY2
STL4@CGY2Nov 12CGY2@STL3
CGY2@STL3Mar 19STL1@CGY2today
STL1@CGY2todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
STL -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
STL-14259%CGY+12045%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CGY beat STL 2-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | SO | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Period scoring
STL won 1 · CGY won 2
0
1
1
1
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
OT
0
1
SO
STL
CGY
Play-by-play · 326 plays
period
event
player
- SO·0:00
Game End
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
End of OT
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
End of Shootout
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Matvei Gridin Goal Snap Shot
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Jimmy Snuggerud Backhand saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Joel Farabee Goal Wrist Shot
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Jake Neighbours Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Morgan Frost Backhand Wide Right
·
STL 0·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
STL 0·CGY 2
- OT·5:00
End of OT
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·4:59
Pavel Buchnevich Backhand saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·4:55
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Kevin Bahl
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·4:21
Hunter Brzustewicz shot blocked by Logan Mailloux
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·4:17
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·4:17
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·4:15
Morgan Frost Tip-In saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:53
Victor Olofsson shot blocked by Cam Fowler
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:38
Takeaway by Zayne Parekh
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:30
Victor Olofsson Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:23
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:23
Timeout - Home
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:23
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:22
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·3:17
Victor Olofsson Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·2:32
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·2:23
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·2:23
Timeout - Visitor
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·2:23
Pavel Buchnevich High-sticking against Connor Zary
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·2:17
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 1·CGY 1
- OT·2:07
Pavel Buchnevich Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
STL 1·CGY 1
Team stats
STL
Away
Stat
CGY
Home
26
Shots
31
0.0
PCT
0.0
14
PIM
10
27
Faceoffs W
26
11
Blocks
10
22
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
6
Betting line
STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -142/CGY +120
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Philip BrobergSTL · DBURSTS15898
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RWSHOT MPH95.697
Colton ParaykoSTL · DBURSTS9494
Mikael BacklundCGY · CSHOT MPH93.594
Cam FowlerSTL · DDIST MI260.294
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · CGY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+120
Close price
+120
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
CGY vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Dylan HollowaySTL3.1± 1.3high
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
- Jimmy SnuggerudSTL2.6± 2.1high
Goals
- Robert ThomasSTL0.7± 1.2high
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Robert ThomasSTL1.4± 1.1high
- Dylan HollowaySTL1.2± 1.1high
- Jimmy SnuggerudSTL1.0± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands