Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

32-23-12

ANA

37-27-4

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasANA -155

PHI · top performer

Owen Tippett

RW · #74

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:41
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:20
N. CatesLW · #27	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:25
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:23
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-1	3	0	2	2	19:40
L. GlendeningC · #41	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	14:00
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:47
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	1	1	1	6	1	0	11:56
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	20:55
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	1	2	0	0	4	14:17
O. TippettRW · #74	1	0	0	5	3	1	0	16:24
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	18:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:51
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	21:22
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	20:45
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	1	2	2	3	0	24:30
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	1	0	3	5	17:27
C. YorkD · #8	0	1	0	0	2	2	2	21:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	36	2	34	.944	62:08

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:22
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	1	0	7	0	1	2	18:35
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:58
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	-2	1	3	0	5	4:06
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:01
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:00
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:38
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:00
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	19:07
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	5:48
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	2	5	0	2	13:55
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-2	0	3	0	2	7:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	22:44
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	25:29
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	1	0	2	0	2	2	19:44
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:54
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	25:22
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	12:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	28	3	25	.893	61:44

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Jan 7

ANA2@

PHI5

Mar 19

PHI3@

ANA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+13043%

ANA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat ANA 3-2. O. Tippett led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PHI	1	1	0	1	3
ANA	0	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · ANA won 1

PHI

ANA

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:17
Game End
PHI 3·ANA 2
OT·2:17
End of OT
PHI 3·ANA 2
OT·2:17
Challenge League - off-side - goal
PHI 3·ANA 2
OT·2:17
Noah Cates Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (18)
·
PHI 3·ANA 2
OT·2:15
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·2:06
Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·1:51
Cutter Gauthier Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·1:34
Giveaway by Matvei Michkov
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·1:22
Cam York hit Leo Carlsson
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·1:13
Takeaway by Christian Dvorak
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·0:00
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·19:53
Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by Alex Killorn
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·19:28
Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·19:25
Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·19:21
Trevor Zegras hit John Carlson
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:52
Ryan Poehling shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:49
Jacob Trouba Snap Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:45
Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Rasmus Ristolainen
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:28
Sean Couturier hit Jeffrey Viel
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:23
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Cutter Gauthier
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:17
Garnet Hathaway Slap Shot Hit Left Post
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:06
Luke Glendening faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier
·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:06
Leo Carlsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (35), Cutter Gauthier (26)
· ·
PHI 2·ANA 2
3rd·18:05
Troy Terry Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·ANA 1
3rd·18:04
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·ANA 1
3rd·17:56
John Carlson shot blocked by Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·ANA 1
3rd·17:54
Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·ANA 1

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +130/ANA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
61.7%
P(ANA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.7%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.7%
P(ANA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL