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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

32-23-12

32
ANA

ANA

37-27-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasANA -155

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Noah Cates

Noah Cates

LW · #27

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Cutter Gauthier

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
PHI32-23-12ANA37-27-4
PHI

PHI

32-23-12

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

37-27-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

15

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Jan 7ANAANA2@PHIPHI5
Mar 19PHIPHI3@ANAANA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+13043%
ANAANA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat ANA 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
PHI11013
ANA01102

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · ANA won 1

1
0

1

1
1

2

0
1

3

1
0

OT

PHI
ANA

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:17

    Game End

    PHI 3·ANA 2

  2. OT·2:17

    End of OT

    PHI 3·ANA 2

  3. OT·2:17

    Challenge League - off-side - goal

    PHI 3·ANA 2

  4. OT·2:17

    Noah Cates Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (18)

    ·

    PHI 3·ANA 2

  5. OT·2:15

    Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  6. OT·2:06

    Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  7. OT·1:51

    Cutter Gauthier Backhand saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  8. OT·1:34

    Giveaway by Matvei Michkov

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  9. OT·1:22

    Cam York hit Leo Carlsson

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  10. OT·1:13

    Takeaway by Christian Dvorak

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  11. OT·0:00

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  12. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  13. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  14. 3rd·19:53

    Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by Alex Killorn

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  15. 3rd·19:28

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  16. 3rd·19:25

    Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  17. 3rd·19:21

    Trevor Zegras hit John Carlson

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  18. 3rd·18:52

    Ryan Poehling shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  19. 3rd·18:49

    Jacob Trouba Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  20. 3rd·18:45

    Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  21. 3rd·18:43

    Giveaway by Rasmus Ristolainen

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  22. 3rd·18:28

    Sean Couturier hit Jeffrey Viel

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  23. 3rd·18:23

    Nick Seeler shot blocked by Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  24. 3rd·18:17

    Garnet Hathaway Slap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  25. 3rd·18:06

    Luke Glendening faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  26. 3rd·18:06

    Leo Carlsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (35), Cutter Gauthier (26)

    · ·

    PHI 2·ANA 2

  27. 3rd·18:05

    Troy Terry Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 1

  28. 3rd·18:04

    Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 1

  29. 3rd·17:56

    John Carlson shot blocked by Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 1

  30. 3rd·17:54

    Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·ANA 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

28

Shots

36

0.0

PCT

25.0

15

PIM

15

27

Faceoffs W

23

20

Blocks

11

20

Giveaways

12

7

Takeaways

2

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +130/ANA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR