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FINAL+1BOS
VGK

VGK

24-13-12

34
BOS

BOS

29-20-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasVGK -162

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Jack Eichel

Jack Eichel

C · #9

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

BOS
David Pastrnak

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
VGK24-13-12BOS29-20-2
VGK

VGK

24-13-12

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BOS

BOS

29-20-2

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

15

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 17BOSBOS5@VGKVGK6
Jan 23VGKVGK3@BOSBOS4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-16262%
BOSBOS+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat VGK 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0033
BOS3104

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · BOS won 2

0
3

1

0
1

2

3
0

3

VGK
BOS

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    · ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Icing

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  5. 3rd·19:48

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  6. 3rd·19:47

    Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm

    · ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  7. 3rd·19:38

    Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    · ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  8. 3rd·19:38

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  9. 3rd·19:34

    Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    · ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  10. 3rd·19:34

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  11. 3rd·19:33

    Jack Eichel shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  12. 3rd·19:24

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  13. 3rd·19:13

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Pavel Zacha

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  14. 3rd·19:13

    Icing

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  15. 3rd·19:06

    Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  16. 3rd·19:06

    Icing

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  17. 3rd·18:59

    Tomas Hertl Tip-In Short

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  18. 3rd·18:31

    Jack Eichel shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  19. 3rd·18:22

    Tomas Hertl Deflected saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  20. 3rd·18:21

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  21. 3rd·18:08

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  22. 3rd·18:03

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Pavel Zacha

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  23. 3rd·18:03

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  24. 3rd·18:01

    Dylan Coghlan Slap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  25. 3rd·17:25

    Tanner Laczynski faceoff won against Elias Lindholm

    · ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  26. 3rd·17:25

    Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (19), Mitch Marner (40)

    · ·

    VGK 3·BOS 4

  27. 3rd·17:14

    Nikita Zadorov hit Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 2·BOS 4

  28. 3rd·17:08

    David Pastrnak shot blocked by Mitch Marner

    ·

    VGK 2·BOS 4

  29. 3rd·16:46

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Morgan Geekie

    ·

    VGK 2·BOS 4

  30. 3rd·16:46

    Icing

    VGK 2·BOS 4

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

33

Shots

29

25.0

PCT

66.7

13

PIM

15

36

Faceoffs W

26

14

Blocks

20

18

Giveaways

13

3

Takeaways

9

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -162/BOS +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Ivan BarbashevVGK · LW
    DIST MI44.194
  • Pavel DorofeyevVGK · RW
    DIST MI41.193

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR