NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

FLA

22-18-3

MTL

25-13-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesMTL leads series 2-0VegasFLA -112

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Florida Panthers, 6–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Sam Bennett

C · #9

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Oliver Kapanen

C · #91

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

FLA22-18-3

MTL25-13-6

FLA22-18-3MTL25-13-6

FLA

22-18-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MTL

25-13-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MTL leads series 2-0

Dec 31

MTL3@

FLA2

Jan 9

FLA2@

MTL6today

Apr 7

FLA3@

MTL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-11253%

MTL-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat FLA 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	0	1	1	2
MTL	2	1	3	6

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · MTL won 2

FLA

MTL

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:51
Giveaway by Luke Kunin
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:51
Takeaway by Luke Kunin
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:21
Noah Gregor shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:10
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Brendan Gallagher
·
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:10
Alexandre Texier Goal (7) Batted, assists: Samuel Blais (5), Joseph Veleno (2)
· ·
FLA 2·MTL 6
3rd·19:07
Joseph Veleno Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Alexandre Carrier
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Arber Xhekaj Misconduct
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Donovan Sebrango Misconduct
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Donovan Sebrango Roughing against Arber Xhekaj
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Owen Beck Charging against Jack Studnicka
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Arber Xhekaj Roughing against Donovan Sebrango
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:45
Donovan Sebrango Roughing against Arber Xhekaj
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:41
Arber Xhekaj hit Jack Studnicka
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:11
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Owen Beck
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:11
Hand Pass
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:02
Arber Xhekaj hit Noah Gregor
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:59
Owen Beck faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:59
Juraj Slafkovský Goal (16) , assists: Oliver Kapanen (11), Lane Hutson (36)
· ·
FLA 2·MTL 5
3rd·17:18
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·17:09
Sam Reinhart Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:48
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:48
Puck in Netting
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:46
Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:09
Gustav Forsling hit Oliver Kapanen
·
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·15:57
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
·
FLA 2·MTL 4
3rd·15:31
Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
FLA 2·MTL 4

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA -112/MTL -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598
Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MTL vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands