NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

DAL

26-10-8

WSH

22-16-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-0VegasWSH -122

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 4–1.

DAL +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Sam Steel

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

DAL26-10-8

WSH22-16-6

DAL26-10-8WSH22-16-6

DAL

26-10-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

WSH

22-16-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DAL wins series 2-0

Oct 29

WSH0@

DAL1

Jan 8

DAL4@

WSH1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+10250%

WSH-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WSH 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	1	1	2	4
WSH	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · WSH won 0

DAL

WSH

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 4·WSH 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 4·WSH 1
3rd·19:41
Brett Leason faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 4·WSH 1
3rd·19:41
Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none
DAL 4·WSH 1
3rd·19:38
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:36
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:36
Goalie Stopped
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:34
Jakob Chychrun Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:22
John Carlson hit Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:19
Justin Hryckowian Snap Shot Wide Left
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:15
Giveaway by Alex Ovechkin
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:06
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:06
Goalie Stopped
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·19:03
Jakob Chychrun Deflected saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:47
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:47
Icing
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:43
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot Wide Right
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:40
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:40
Icing
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:32
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:32
Puck in Crowd
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·18:27
Jakob Chychrun Slap Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·17:41
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Radek Faksa
·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·17:41
Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (23), Jakob Chychrun (17)
· ·
DAL 3·WSH 1
3rd·17:36
Connor McMichael Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 3·WSH 0
3rd·17:34
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sam Steel
·
DAL 3·WSH 0
3rd·17:34
Goalie Stopped
DAL 3·WSH 0
3rd·17:32
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 3·WSH 0
3rd·17:18
Ethen Frank Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 3·WSH 0
3rd·17:03
Roope Hintz Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
DAL 3·WSH 0

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL +102/WSH -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Roope HintzDAL · C
BURSTS25998
Ethen FrankWSH · C
BURSTS22797
Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

WSH vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Mikko RantanenDAL
1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands