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FINAL+2CAR
CAR

CAR

25-14-3

31
NJ

NJ

22-18-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 4FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-0VegasCAR -125

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 3–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Taylor Hall

Taylor Hall

LW · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Arseny Gritsyuk

Arseny Gritsyuk

RW · #81

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
CAR25-14-3NJ22-18-2
CAR

CAR

25-14-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

22-18-2

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

CAR leads series 2-0

Oct 9NJNJ3@CARCAR6
Jan 5CARCAR3@NJNJ1today
Jan 18CARCAR4@NJNJ1
Mar 28NJNJ2@CARCAR5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-12556%
NJNJ+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat NJ 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR1113
NJ1001

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · NJ won 0

1
1

1

1
0

2

1
0

3

CAR
NJ

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  3. 3rd·19:42

    Timo Meier Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  4. 3rd·19:40

    Timo Meier Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  5. 3rd·19:31

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Noah Philp

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  6. 3rd·19:31

    Timeout - Home

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  7. 3rd·19:31

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  8. 3rd·18:38

    Luke Hughes Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    · ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  9. 3rd·18:31

    Timo Meier Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  10. 3rd·18:27

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Noah Philp

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  11. 3rd·18:27

    Andrei Svechnikov Tripping against Luke Hughes

    · ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  12. 3rd·18:20

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  13. 3rd·18:20

    Icing

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  14. 3rd·18:14

    Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  15. 3rd·18:13

    Cody Glass Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  16. 3rd·17:46

    Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Sean Walker

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  17. 3rd·17:41

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  18. 3rd·17:41

    Icing

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  19. 3rd·17:25

    Giveaway by Sean Walker

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  20. 3rd·17:22

    Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Sean Walker

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  21. 3rd·17:05

    Jordan Martinook Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  22. 3rd·16:31

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  23. 3rd·16:31

    Puck in Crowd

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  24. 3rd·16:26

    Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  25. 3rd·16:20

    Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  26. 3rd·15:54

    Luke Hughes shot blocked by Jordan Martinook

    · ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  27. 3rd·15:32

    Dougie Hamilton hit Taylor Hall

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  28. 3rd·15:28

    Takeaway by Jackson Blake

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  29. 3rd·15:25

    Giveaway by K'Andre Miller

    CAR 3·NJ 1

  30. 3rd·15:07

    Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    CAR 3·NJ 1

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

29

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

6

33

Faceoffs W

26

18

Blocks

9

19

Giveaways

12

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -125/NJ +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995
  • K'Andre MillerCAR · D
    DIST MI44.490

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR