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FINAL+1NYI
NYI

NYI

26-16-5

10
EDM

EDM

23-17-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-0VegasEDM -170

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 1–0.

NYI +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
0
NYI26-16-5EDM23-17-8
NYI

NYI

26-16-5

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

23-17-8

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

NYI win series 2-0

Oct 16EDMEDM2@NYINYI4
Jan 16NYINYI1@EDMEDM0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYINYI+14241%
EDMEDM-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat EDM 1-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYI0011
EDM0000

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · EDM won 0

0
0

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

NYI
EDM

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  3. 3rd·19:24

    Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  4. 3rd·19:18

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mathew Barzal

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  5. 3rd·19:18

    Icing

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  6. 3rd·19:14

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Left

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  7. 3rd·18:46

    Takeaway by Adam Pelech

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  8. 3rd·18:44

    Giveaway by Adam Pelech

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  9. 3rd·18:41

    Simon Holmstrom Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  10. 3rd·18:33

    Simon Holmstrom Wrist Shot Wide Right

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  11. 3rd·17:45

    Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  12. 3rd·17:29

    Kyle MacLean hit Ty Emberson

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  13. 3rd·17:29

    Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  14. 3rd·17:24

    Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  15. 3rd·17:24

    Icing

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  16. 3rd·16:48

    Jake Walman shot blocked by Mathew Barzal

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  17. 3rd·16:45

    Jack Roslovic Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  18. 3rd·16:29

    Takeaway by Leon Draisaitl

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  19. 3rd·16:05

    Jack Roslovic Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  20. 3rd·16:03

    Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  21. 3rd·15:52

    Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  22. 3rd·15:14

    Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  23. 3rd·14:51

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  24. 3rd·14:51

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  25. 3rd·14:49

    Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  26. 3rd·14:01

    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  27. 3rd·13:42

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Kyle MacLean

    ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  28. 3rd·13:42

    Anthony Duclair Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (5), Mathew Barzal (27)

    · ·

    NYI 1·EDM 0

  29. 3rd·13:05

    Matt Savoie Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 0·EDM 0

  30. 3rd·12:54

    Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    NYI 0·EDM 0

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

18

Shots

35

100.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

2

22

Faceoffs W

24

16

Blocks

8

15

Giveaways

16

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +142/EDM -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.6%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR