Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYI

NYI

28-19-5

PHI

24-18-9

NHLMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesPHI leads series 2-1VegasPHI -115

NYI · top performer

Tony DeAngelo

D · #77

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	17:29
C. CizikasC · #53	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:36
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:48
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	16:02
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	12:39
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:15
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:17
A. LeeLW · #27	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:54
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:12
J. PageauC · #44	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	13:30
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:51
M. TsyplakovRW · #7	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	10:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	14:17
T. DeAngeloD · #77	1	0	2	7	0	3	0	22:32
I. GeorgeD · #36	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	12:39
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	20:51
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	24:09
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	22:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	21	0	21	1.000	59:36

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:41
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	15:01
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	16:43
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:14
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-3	1	1	1	0	19:00
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:45
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:32
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	15:01
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	16:10
L. PedersonC · #25	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:41
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	4	5	0	4	17:36
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:43
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	19:24
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	16:38
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	22:39
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	20:40
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	4	0	3	2	22:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI leads series 2-1

Oct 25

NYI3@

PHI4

Nov 28

PHI4@

NYI3

Jan 27

NYI4@

PHI0today

Apr 3

PHI4@

NYI1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-10551%

PHI-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat PHI 4-0. T. DeAngelo led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	1	2	1	4
PHI	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

NYI won 3 · PHI won 0

NYI

PHI

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·18:29
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·18:29
Puck in Netting
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·18:17
Travis Konecny Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·18:14
Takeaway by Matvei Michkov
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·17:43
Anders Lee shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Trevor Zegras
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·17:23
Jean-Gabriel Pageau shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·17:15
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·17:15
Goalie Stopped
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·17:14
Noah Cates Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·16:58
Lane Pederson hit Emil Heineman
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·16:42
Takeaway by Lane Pederson
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·16:39
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Lane Pederson
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·16:39
Icing
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·16:24
Denver Barkey Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·16:01
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·15:02
Takeaway by Travis Sanheim
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:49
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:49
Hand Pass
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:40
Marc Gatcomb hit Nikita Grebenkin
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:37
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Lane Pederson
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:37
Net Dislodged Defensive Skater
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:29
Giveaway by Nikita Grebenkin
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:21
Lane Pederson faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·14:21
Puck in Benches
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·13:50
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·13:50
Icing
NYI 4·PHI 0
3rd·13:40
Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
NYI 4·PHI 0

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -105/PHI -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–0.

NYI +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.8%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.8%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

New York IslandersPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL