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FINAL+4NYI
NYI

NYI

28-19-5

40
PHI

PHI

24-18-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesPHI leads series 2-1VegasPHI -115

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–0.

NYI +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Denver Barkey

Denver Barkey

C · #52

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
0
NYI28-19-5PHI24-18-9
NYI

NYI

28-19-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

24-18-9

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

PHI leads series 2-1

Oct 25NYINYI3@PHIPHI4
Nov 28PHIPHI4@NYINYI3
Jan 27NYINYI4@PHIPHI0today
Apr 3PHIPHI4@NYINYI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYINYI-10551%
PHIPHI-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat PHI 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYI1214
PHI0000

Period scoring

NYI won 3 · PHI won 0

1
0

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

NYI
PHI

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  3. 3rd·18:29

    Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  4. 3rd·18:29

    Puck in Netting

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  5. 3rd·18:17

    Travis Konecny Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  6. 3rd·18:14

    Takeaway by Matvei Michkov

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  7. 3rd·17:43

    Anders Lee shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  8. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Trevor Zegras

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  9. 3rd·17:23

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  10. 3rd·17:15

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  11. 3rd·17:15

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  12. 3rd·17:14

    Noah Cates Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  13. 3rd·16:58

    Lane Pederson hit Emil Heineman

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  14. 3rd·16:42

    Takeaway by Lane Pederson

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  15. 3rd·16:39

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Lane Pederson

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  16. 3rd·16:39

    Icing

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  17. 3rd·16:24

    Denver Barkey Tip-In saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  18. 3rd·16:01

    Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  19. 3rd·15:02

    Takeaway by Travis Sanheim

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  20. 3rd·14:49

    Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  21. 3rd·14:49

    Hand Pass

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  22. 3rd·14:40

    Marc Gatcomb hit Nikita Grebenkin

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  23. 3rd·14:37

    Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Lane Pederson

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  24. 3rd·14:37

    Net Dislodged Defensive Skater

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  25. 3rd·14:29

    Giveaway by Nikita Grebenkin

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  26. 3rd·14:21

    Lane Pederson faceoff won against Casey Cizikas

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  27. 3rd·14:21

    Puck in Benches

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  28. 3rd·13:50

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  29. 3rd·13:50

    Icing

    NYI 4·PHI 0

  30. 3rd·13:40

    Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    NYI 4·PHI 0

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

23

Shots

21

33.3

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

8

33

Faceoffs W

24

11

Blocks

10

11

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

6

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -105/PHI -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR