Live · 3
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1OTT
WSH

WSH

21-15-5

34
OTT

OTT

19-15-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesOTT leads series 2-0VegasOTT -155

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Washington Capitals, 4–3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Justin Sourdif

Justin Sourdif

RW · #34

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Shane Pinto

Shane Pinto

C · #12

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
WSH21-15-5OTT19-15-5
WSH

WSH

21-15-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

19-15-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

PIM

17

Season series

OTT leads series 2-0

Oct 25OTTOTT7@WSHWSH1
Jan 1WSHWSH3@OTTOTT4today
Mar 18OTTOTT1@WSHWSH4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13043%
OTTOTT-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat WSH 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH2013
OTT0224

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · OTT won 2

2
0

1

0
2

2

1
2

3

WSH
OTT

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  3. 3rd·19:38

    Michael Amadio shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  4. 3rd·19:37

    Jakob Chychrun Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  5. 3rd·19:10

    Giveaway by Tom Wilson

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  6. 3rd·19:02

    Dylan Strome Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  8. 3rd·18:52

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  9. 3rd·18:43

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  10. 3rd·18:43

    Icing

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  11. 3rd·18:41

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  12. 3rd·18:31

    Jake Sanderson hit Aliaksei Protas

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  13. 3rd·18:18

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  14. 3rd·18:18

    Icing

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  15. 3rd·18:15

    Ridly Greig Wrist Shot Wide Left

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  16. 3rd·18:01

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  17. 3rd·18:01

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  18. 3rd·17:59

    Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  19. 3rd·17:51

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  20. 3rd·17:51

    Puck in Benches

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  21. 3rd·17:47

    Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  22. 3rd·17:45

    Giveaway by Nick Jensen

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  23. 3rd·17:38

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  24. 3rd·17:38

    Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Tim Stützle (23)

    · ·

    WSH 3·OTT 4

  25. 3rd·16:41

    John Carlson Backhand saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 3

  26. 3rd·16:25

    Ethen Frank Tip-In saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 3

  27. 3rd·15:53

    Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    WSH 3·OTT 3

  28. 3rd·15:53

    Aliaksei Protas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (8), Tom Wilson (20)

    · ·

    WSH 3·OTT 3

  29. 3rd·15:36

    Michael Amadio hit Rasmus Sandin

    ·

    WSH 2·OTT 3

  30. 3rd·14:58

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    WSH 2·OTT 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

29

Shots

32

25.0

PCT

0.0

17

PIM

17

29

Faceoffs W

28

19

Blocks

14

9

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH +130/OTT -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR