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FINAL+5UTA
TOR

TOR

23-16-7

16
UTA

UTA

23-20-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -162

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 6–1.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Calle Jarnkrok

Calle Jarnkrok

C · #19

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
6
TOR23-16-7UTA23-20-4
TOR

TOR

23-16-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

23-20-4

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 6UTAUTA3@TORTOR5
Jan 14TORTOR1@UTAUTA6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+13642%
UTAUTA-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat TOR 6-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TOR0011
UTA1326

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · UTA won 3

0
1

1

0
3

2

1
2

3

TOR
UTA

Play-by-play · 356 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Liam O'Brien hit Simon Benoit

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  4. 3rd·19:37

    Mikhail Sergachev Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  5. 3rd·19:20

    Dylan Guenther Snap Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  6. 3rd·18:39

    Barrett Hayton Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  7. 3rd·18:38

    JJ Peterka shot blocked by Nicolas Roy

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  8. 3rd·18:09

    Liam O'Brien hit Calle Jarnkrok

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  9. 3rd·17:59

    Brandon Tanev shot blocked by Jake McCabe

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  10. 3rd·17:52

    Liam O'Brien Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  11. 3rd·17:04

    John Tavares hit Dylan Guenther

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  12. 3rd·16:54

    John Tavares faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  13. 3rd·16:54

    Daniil But Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (9), JJ Peterka (16)

    · ·

    TOR 1·UTA 6

  14. 3rd·16:51

    Barrett Hayton Tip-In saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  15. 3rd·16:46

    Barrett Hayton Snap Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  16. 3rd·16:44

    Takeaway by JJ Peterka

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  17. 3rd·16:15

    Liam O'Brien hit Oliver Ekman-Larsson

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  18. 3rd·16:09

    Nick DeSimone Snap Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  19. 3rd·16:04

    Nick DeSimone shot blocked by Liam O'Brien

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  20. 3rd·15:59

    Jake McCabe hit Nick DeSimone

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  21. 3rd·15:46

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  22. 3rd·15:46

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  23. 3rd·15:43

    Jack McBain Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  24. 3rd·15:16

    Jack McBain hit Morgan Rielly

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  25. 3rd·15:14

    Takeaway by Morgan Rielly

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  26. 3rd·14:58

    Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  27. 3rd·14:55

    Lawson Crouse Backhand saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  28. 3rd·14:48

    Clayton Keller Backhand saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  29. 3rd·14:43

    Giveaway by Steven Lorentz

    TOR 1·UTA 5

  30. 3rd·14:36

    Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Scott Laughton

    ·

    TOR 1·UTA 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

20

Shots

41

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

28

Faceoffs W

36

22

Blocks

15

17

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +136/UTA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Jake McCabeTOR · D
    DIST MI253.292
  • Morgan RiellyTOR · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Simon BenoitTOR · D
    BURSTS7090
  • Matthew KniesTOR · LW
    DIST MI219.188

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR