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FINAL+2MTL
MTL

MTL

22-12-6

75
CAR

CAR

24-13-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesMTL leads series 1-0VegasCAR -166

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 7–5.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Sammy Blais

Sammy Blais

LW · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

5Points

2

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
5
MTL22-12-6CAR24-13-3
MTL

MTL

22-12-6

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

24-13-3

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

2

Playoff series

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+14042%
CARCAR-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 7-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL2327
CAR3115

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · CAR won 1

2
3

1

3
1

2

2
1

3

MTL
CAR

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  3. 3rd·19:49

    Phillip Danault Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  4. 3rd·19:41

    Giveaway by Phillip Danault

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Off-side

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  7. 3rd·19:17

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  8. 3rd·18:56

    Joe Veleno Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  9. 3rd·18:48

    Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  10. 3rd·18:48

    Puck in Crowd

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  11. 3rd·18:32

    Giveaway by Nick Suzuki

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  12. 3rd·18:08

    Giveaway by Taylor Hall

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  13. 3rd·18:03

    Nick Suzuki Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  14. 3rd·18:00

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  15. 3rd·18:00

    Lane Hutson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    MTL 7·CAR 5

  16. 3rd·17:33

    Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 5

  17. 3rd·17:33

    Icing

    MTL 6·CAR 5

  18. 3rd·16:58

    Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 5

  19. 3rd·16:58

    Sebastian Aho Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (20), K'Andre Miller (13)

    · ·

    MTL 6·CAR 5

  20. 3rd·16:08

    Nikolaj Ehlers Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  21. 3rd·16:04

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  22. 3rd·16:04

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  23. 3rd·16:02

    Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  24. 3rd·15:47

    Giveaway by Taylor Hall

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  25. 3rd·15:36

    Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  26. 3rd·15:36

    Puck in Benches

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  27. 3rd·14:34

    Lane Hutson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  28. 3rd·14:23

    Brendan Gallagher Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  29. 3rd·14:16

    Juraj Slafkovský hit K'Andre Miller

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

  30. 3rd·14:12

    Jalen Chatfield Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 6·CAR 4

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

23

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

2

28

Faceoffs W

35

15

Blocks

10

18

Giveaways

19

4

Takeaways

9

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +140/CAR -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR