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FINAL+1FLA
FLA

FLA

24-18-3

43
BUF

BUF

24-16-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBUF -120

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–3.

FLA +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

FLA
Carter Verhaeghe

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
FLA24-18-3BUF24-16-4
FLA

FLA

24-18-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

24-16-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

7

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 18FLAFLA0@BUFBUF3
Jan 13FLAFLA4@BUFBUF3today
Feb 3BUFBUF5@FLAFLA3
Feb 28BUFBUF3@FLAFLA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLAFLA+10050%
BUFBUF-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat BUF 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
FLA2024
BUF1113

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · BUF won 1

2
1

1

0
1

2

2
1

3

FLA
BUF

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    FLA 4·BUF 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    FLA 4·BUF 3

  3. 3rd·19:46

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 4·BUF 3

  4. 3rd·19:46

    Timeout - Home

    FLA 4·BUF 3

  5. 3rd·19:46

    Alex Tuch Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bowen Byram (15), Rasmus Dahlin (26)

    · ·

    FLA 4·BUF 3

  6. 3rd·19:44

    Alex Tuch Batted Wide Left

    ·

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  7. 3rd·19:36

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Sam Bennett

    ·

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  8. 3rd·19:36

    Puck in Netting

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  9. 3rd·19:34

    Jack Quinn Slap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  10. 3rd·19:24

    Bowen Byram hit Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  11. 3rd·19:24

    Giveaway by Anton Lundell

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  12. 3rd·18:46

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  13. 3rd·18:46

    A.J. Greer Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (21), Sam Bennett (19)

    · ·

    FLA 4·BUF 2

  14. 3rd·18:37

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  15. 3rd·18:29

    Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  16. 3rd·18:22

    Sam Bennett shot blocked by Tage Thompson

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  17. 3rd·18:14

    Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  18. 3rd·17:20

    Sam Reinhart Backhand saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  19. 3rd·17:10

    Josh Doan Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  20. 3rd·17:08

    Tage Thompson Tip-In saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  21. 3rd·16:54

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  22. 3rd·16:54

    Goalie Stopped

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  23. 3rd·16:52

    Evan Rodrigues Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  24. 3rd·16:51

    Giveaway by Peyton Krebs

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  25. 3rd·16:39

    Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  26. 3rd·16:39

    Hand Pass

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  27. 3rd·15:58

    Jason Zucker hit Niko Mikkola

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  28. 3rd·15:43

    Bowen Byram Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  29. 3rd·15:41

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Sam Bennett

    ·

    FLA 3·BUF 2

  30. 3rd·15:41

    Puck in Netting

    FLA 3·BUF 2

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

32

Shots

23

100.0

PCT

0.0

9

PIM

7

29

Faceoffs W

31

14

Blocks

19

12

Giveaways

24

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +100/BUF -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
    SKATE MPH23.195
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR