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LV#11 · American Football Conference
Las Vegas Raiders
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#31 of 32
Elo rating 1356.7 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 7 vs DEN, 17-24, 2025-12-07. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 31 at PHI, 0-31, 2025-12-14. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 2 at HOU, 21-23, 2025-12-21. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 24 vs NYG, 10-34, 2025-12-28. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 2 vs KC, 14-12, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 32nd of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 753 graded plays; the defense ranked 17th across 819.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
753 off plays · 819 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.223
Team EPA per play
32nd of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.012
Team EPA per play allowed
17th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split753/819 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays-0.2230
32nd of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.162 (31st)
Success36.8%6
30th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 39.3% (30th)
Explosive6.2%13
28th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.0% (25th)
Dropbacks-0.2093
31st of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG -0.094 (28th)
Rushes-0.2440
32nd of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.275 (32nd)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.01248
17th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.032 (20th)
Success44.0%58
14th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 44.1% (16th)
Explosive6.5%81
7th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.2% (20th)
Dropbacks+0.05145
18th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.086 (21st)
Rushes-0.04648
17th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.057 (17th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG -0.223 · 2024 REG -0.162 · -0.061
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.012 · 2024 REG +0.032 · -0.020
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 753 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Geno Smith19 TD3,025
- 2Kenny Pickett1 TD188
- 3Aidan O'Connell0 TD102
Rushing yards
- 1Ashton Jeanty5 TD975
- 2Geno Smith0 TD109
- 3Raheem Mostert0 TD104
- 4Tre Tucker0 TD51
- 5Zamir White0 TD32
Receiving yards
- 1Tre Tucker5 TD696
- 2Brock Bowers7 TD680
- 3Jakobi Meyers0 TD352
- 4Ashton Jeanty5 TD346
- 5Michael Mayer1 TD328
Receptions
- 1Brock Bowers12 G64
- 2Tre Tucker17 G57
- 3Ashton Jeanty17 G55
- 4Michael Mayer13 G35
- 5Jakobi Meyers7 G33
Total TDs
- 1Geno Smith15 G19
- 2Ashton Jeanty17 G10
- 3Brock Bowers12 G7
- 4Tre Tucker17 G5
- 5Tyler Lockett10 G1
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Geno Smith
448 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate29.8
- EPA / play-0.148
- Accuracy +0.8%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on -0.148 EPA/play and 0.8% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Bottom tier
avg rank 29.6
YDS
32nd
Total yards
PASS
26th
Pass yards
RUSH
32nd
Rush yards
PTS
29th
Points
TO
29th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-heavy
72% pass · 28% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
273vs 342 yds/GBelow avg
Passing yards
195vs 225 yds/GSlight gap
Rushing yards
78vs 117 yds/GBelow avg
Points scored
15.9vs 23.5 pts/GBelow avg
Turnovers
1.20vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 10 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 1 · PICK 1
Fernando Mendoza
QB · Indiana
RND 2 · PICK 38
Treydan Stukes
SAF · Arizona
RND 3 · PICK 67
Keyron Crawford
EDGE · Auburn
RND 3 · PICK 91
Trey Zuhn III
C · Texas A&M
RND 4 · PICK 101
Jermod McCoy
CB · Tennessee
RND 4 · PICK 122
Mike Washington Jr.
RB · Arkansas
RND 5 · PICK 150
Dalton Johnson
SAF · Arizona
RND 5 · PICK 175
Hezekiah Masses
CB · California
RND 6 · PICK 195
Malik Benson
WR · Oregon
RND 7 · PICK 229
Brandon Cleveland
DT · North Carolina St.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 10
Signed WR Brandon Johnson to a contract. Placed WR Corey Rucker on injured reserve.
- May 21
Waived DT Brodric Martin.
- May 20
Waived DT Brodric Martin from injured reserve with an injury settlement.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 46
The attack
A. O'Connell
QB · #12
A. Okwuegbunam Jr.
TE · #85
A. Jeanty
RB · #2
A. Mafi
G · #56
B. Johnson
WR · #82
B. Bowers
TE · #89
C. Rogers
G · #76
C. Runyon
TE · #84
C. Grant
OT · #60
C. Roberts
WR · #86
C. Collier
RB · #33
C. Heyward
FB · #34
C. Rucker
WR · #82
D. Wagner
OT · #78
D. Young
WR · #81
D. Thompkins
WR · #83
D. Glaze
OT · #71
D. Thornton Jr.
WR · #10
D. Laube
RB · #23
E.J. Williams Jr.
WR · #88
F. Mendoza
QB · #15
I. Thomas
TE · #80
I. Jatta
OT · #72
J. Bech
WR · #18
J. Powers-Johnson
G · #58
J. Clark
QB · #16
J. Nailor
WR · #9
J. Meredith
C · #61
J. Pickett
G · #77
J. Shorter
WR · #88
K. Missouri
OT · #62
K. Cousins
QB · #8
K. Miller
OT · #74
M. Benson
WR · #19
M. Mayer
TE · #87
M. Washington Jr.
RB · #30
N
N. Henning
OT · #73
P. Gurd
TE · #45
P. Dorsett II
WR · #13
R. Hemby
RB · #37
S. Jackson
WR · #4
S. Burford
G · #70
T. Tucker
WR · #1
T. Zuhn III
C · #66
T. Linderbaum
C · #65
W. Putnam
C · #67
Defense · 42
The stop unit
A. Butler
DT · #69
B. Jones
DT · #94
B. Cleveland
DT · #90
B. Jackson
LB · #54
B. Johnson
LB · #59
C. Offord
CB · #39
C. McGrone
LB · #57
C. Anusiem
CB · #29
C. Slone
DE · #48
C. Lindenberg
LB · #55
D. Johnson
S · #43
D. Porter
CB · #26
D. Richardson
CB · #25
D. Lafayette
S · #40
D
D. Perkins
S · #49
E. Stokes
CB · #5
G. Smith III
DT · #75
G. Vance
CB · #22
H. Masses
CB · #35
I. Pola-Mao
S · #20
J. Harvey
DE · #91
J. Chinn
S · #11
J. McCoy
CB · #28
J. Pegues
DT · #92
J. Laulu
DT · #96
K. Crawford
DE · #42
K. Paye
DE · #95
M. Koonce
DE · #51
M. Crosby
DE · #98
N. Dean
LB · #17
P. Johnson
DE · #93
Q. Walker
LB · #7
S. Olubi
LB · #50
T. Wall
S · #41
T. Johnson
CB · #3
T. Booker IV
DT · #99
T. Eichenberg
LB · #44
T. Hemingway
DT · #97
T. Ma'ae
DT · #68
T. Stukes
S · #31
T. McCollum
S · #27
X. Sorey Jr.
LB · #53
Special teams · 5
