Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at NY?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

12-20

PregameThu, 8:00 PM EDTPrime Video

20-14

ATS/NY -8.5O/U/187.5ML/NY-375

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

NY +2.7 vs LA -4.7 margin

NY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+75.6

NY Elo vs LA Elo

NY owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing LA uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 138/13 - 8:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -8.5

Preview · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks visit New York Liberty Thursday at 8/13 - 8:00 PM EDT. LA is 2-4 in their last 6. NY is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7.

Vegas opened NY as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 187.5. NY's moneyline implies a 79% break-even, LA the inverse.

For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 187.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 22

NY97@

LA98

Jul 29

NY113@

LA109

Aug 14

LA@

NYtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

187.5

High-scoring · +22.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+29525%

NY-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -8.5↗SpreadBet NY -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

187.5

+1.0 since open

Scouting report

LA @ NY

8/13 - 8:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

LAStandard

2 days

last game Aug 11

NYStandard

2 days

last game Aug 11

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

NY -8.5

Model

NY -34.1

Edge

+25.6 pts

Total

Market

187.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NY -375

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LAmetricNY

12-20

Record

20-14

Conf rank

-4.5

Pt diff

+3.2

Streak

2-8

Last 10

7-3

37.3

Power score

71.4

#10

Power rank

70.3

Sched ahead

39.2

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NY -8.5·O/U 187.5·LA +295/NY -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

NY vs LA.

NY is 7-3 recently; LA is 2-8.

72.0%

model · NY win prob

Recent form

NY7–3+2.7
LA2–8-4.7

Situational

NY2d rest
LA2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NY has 1 straight road games; LA has 0.

Model angle

+3.7ppon LA

LA's edge is driven by venue split. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner.

▼Venue split-1.5pp
▼Recent form-0.8pp
▼Model confidence-0.5pp

Players to watch

Breanna StewartNY
20.9points · ±8.3
Breanna Stewart · 20.9 pts · last-10 21.3 vs season 20.4.
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.4points · ±7.5
Sabrina Ionescu · 17.4 pts · last-10 18.8 vs season 15.2.
Nneka OgwumikeLA
16.5points · ±3.9
Nneka Ogwumike · 16.5 pts · last-10 16.2 vs season 16.9.

Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5

NY is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-03LA @ NY79–89
2025-07-26LA @ NY101–99
2025-08-13NY @ LA105–97
2026-06-21NY @ LA97–98
2026-07-28NY @ LA113–109

Line move

open -375→-375flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.8%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
69.8%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
71.4%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
74.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LA.

LA's edge is driven by venue split. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner.

+3.7

pp edge · LA

0.00

CLV pp

Pass

25.2%

±8.9pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-0.1pp edge).

Edge

+0.9pp

-2.8pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

3.95

-0.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.7pp · LA over NY

▼
Venue split66% conf
NY's venue form trims LA's edge by 47.7pp.
-1.5pp
▼
Recent form70% conf
NY's recent form is stronger over the last 5.
-0.8pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
LA is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
NY has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+295

Close price

+295

Open no-vig

24.3%

Close no-vig

24.3%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at NY?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+295DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 24.3%

no live price

Book	LA	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+295★	-375	+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
20.9± 8.3high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.4± 7.5high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
16.5± 3.9high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.3± 3.0high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
8.7± 2.7high
Breanna StewartNY
8.6± 3.3high

Assists

Erica WheelerLA
6.0± 2.4high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.7± 2.3high
Breanna StewartNY
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.7± 1.0high
Breanna StewartNY
1.5± 1.0high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 1.0high

Steals

Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
Dearica HambyLA
1.5± 0.5high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty

NY vs LA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LA.

Where to bet this game.

NY vs LA.