Park factor
94 total idx
Oracle Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
COL
COL
49-73
PregameSat, 4:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
SF
SF
50-72
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOracle Park · San Francisco, California
Line movement
200 snapshots
SF spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 8.0 · -0.5
SF no-vig %
62.8%
open 61.3% · +1.6
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael Lorenzen
SP · #24
3-10
W-L
6.83
ERA
1.88
WHIP
81
K
112.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@STL-4.1 IP2 ER1 K
vsTBL(3-10)3.0 IP7 ER0 K
@SD-4.0 IP3 ER2 K
Home starter
Logan Webb
SP · #62
7-7
W-L
3.59
ERA
1.08
WHIP
103
K
133.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsDET-8.0 IP1 ER2 K
@TEXW(7-7)6.0 IP0 ER8 K
vsMILW(6-7)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+163 / -176
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesCOL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take SF on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
SF vs COL.
SF is 3-7 recently; COL is 4-6.
57.0%
model · SF win prob
Recent form
- SF3–7-1.4
- COL4–6-1.5
Situational
- SF1d restB2B
- COL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; COL has 7.
Model angle
+5.6ppon COL
COL's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.5pp
- ▼Travel burden-1.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+0.9pp
Players to watch
- Landen RouppSF4.9strikeouts · ±2.1
Landen Roupp · 4.9 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 5.3.
- Logan WebbSF4.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Webb · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.9.
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.6strikeouts · ±2.8
Kyle Freeland · 4.6 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.3.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
SF is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-09COL @ SF2–8
- 2026-07-10COL @ SF4–3
- 2026-07-11COL @ SF2–4
- 2026-07-12COL @ SF1–3
- 2026-08-14COL @ SF5–2
Line move
open -178→-192toward SF
The market has moved 1.7pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.6%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
56.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.3%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.24 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
85% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SF vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
116
projections · 90 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Landen RouppSF4.9± 2.1high
- Logan WebbSF4.7± 2.1high
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.6± 2.8high
Hits
- Jake McCarthyCOL1.3± 1.4high
- Cole CarriggCOL1.1± 1.0high
- TJ RumfieldCOL1.0± 1.0high
Total bases
- Jake McCarthyCOL2.2± 3.0high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.0± 3.3high
- Cole CarriggCOL1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Hunter GoodmanCOL0.8± 1.6high
- Mickey MoniakCOL0.7± 1.1high
- Brett SullivanCOL0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.4± 2.0high
- Michael LorenzenCOL3.2± 2.0high
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.2± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
SF
.744
OPS
◀
.719
.712
.323
OBP
◀
.318
.305
4.77
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.06
5.44
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.32
1.51
WHIP
1.30
▶1.35
7.0
K / 9
8.5
▶7.7
The One modelLean
Sat, Aug 15COL
Rockies
55-87
vs57.0%SF
SF★
Giants
69-83
COL 43.0%win prob57.0% SF
SF 1450 · COL 1430Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- White SoxTigers8/15 - 1:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/15 - 2:20 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/15 - 3:07 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/15 - 4:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/15 - 6:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/15 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/15 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/15 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
