Recent form
4-6
WSH -0.1 vs MIA -0.2 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
MIA
MIA
69-68
PregameMon, 6:45 PM EDTMLB.TV, FS1
WSH
WSH
65-74
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketNationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Line movement
200 snapshots
WSH spread
+1.5
open -1.5 · +3.0
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
WSH no-vig %
47.3%
open 48.5% · -1.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ryan Gusto
SP · #65
1-3
W-L
3.98
ERA
1.33
WHIP
53
K
63.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSW(1-3)5.2 IP0 ER2 K
vsWSH-4.0 IP0 ER2 K
@CIN-4.2 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Will Dion
RP · #76
1-1
W-L
3.67
ERA
1.14
WHIP
41
K
34.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOLL(1-1)2.2 IP4 ER3 K
@MIA-3.0 IP0 ER4 K
@TEX-1.0 IP0 ER1 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-123 / +102
Model edge
Win prob50% / 50%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesWSH leads series 2-1
TypeCurrent Series
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Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs MIA.
WSH is 4-6 recently; MIA is 5-5.
50.4%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH4–6-0.1
- MIA5–5-0.2
Situational
- WSH1d restB2B
- MIA1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; MIA has 3.
Model angle
+3.1ppon WSH
WSH's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Venue split+1.1pp
- ▼Model confidence-0.8pp
Players to watch
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8strikeouts · ±2.7
Cade Cavalli · 6.8 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.1.
- Eury PerezMIA6.0strikeouts · ±2.2
Eury Perez · 6 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.9.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA4.8strikeouts · ±2.5
Sandy Alcantara · 4.8 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 4.8.
Head-to-head · 2-4 · last 6
WSH is 2-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-22WSH @ MIA2–4
- 2026-08-23WSH @ MIA2–6
- 2026-08-28MIA @ WSH2–9
- 2026-08-29MIA @ WSH4–5
- 2026-08-30MIA @ WSH6–2
Line move
open -103→+102toward MIA
The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.1%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
48.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.22 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8± 2.7high
- Eury PerezMIA6.0± 2.2high
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA4.8± 2.5high
Hits
- Daylen LileWSH1.3± 1.2high
- Javier SanojaMIA1.1± 1.1high
- Otto LopezMIA1.1± 0.6high
Total bases
- Daylen LileWSH2.4± 2.4high
- Heriberto HernandezMIA2.0± 1.6high
- Keibert RuizWSH1.7± 2.1high
RBIs
- Daylen LileWSH0.9± 1.5high
- Heriberto HernandezMIA0.6± 0.7high
- Kyle StowersMIA0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Jake IrvinWSH3.1± 2.1medium
- Jackson KentWSH3.0± 2.2low
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA2.1± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
WSH
.723
OPS
.718
▶.754
.326
OBP
.318
.324
4.34
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.18
3.90
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.67
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.39
8.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.9
The One modelTossup
Mon, Aug 31MIA
Marlins
80-78
vs50.4%WSH
WSH★
Nationals
76-81
MIA 49.6%win prob50.4% WSH
WSH 1467 · MIA 1501Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- GiantsBraves8/31 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsRays8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers8/31 - 8:05 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros8/31 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies8/31 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels8/31 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks8/31 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
