Recent form
4-6
ATH -0.9 vs TEX -1.2 margin
ATH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Athletics at Texas Rangers
ATH
ATH
53-83
PregameMon, 8:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
TEX
TEX
66-70
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Gage Jump
SP · #61
6-8
W-L
4.69
ERA
1.46
WHIP
97
K
88.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMINW(6-8)6.1 IP2 ER9 K
@KCL(5-8)4.0 IP5 ER3 K
vsTEX-5.1 IP3 ER1 K
Home starter
Jacob deGrom
SP · #48
9-9
W-L
4.21
ERA
1.18
WHIP
159
K
130.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHWL(9-9)3.2 IP8 ER2 K
vsWSHW(9-8)6.0 IP0 ER10 K
@LAAL(8-8)2.0 IP2 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs ATH.
TEX has dropped 4 straight; ATH is 4-6 over its last 10.
62.3%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX4–6-1.2
- ATH4–6-0.9
Situational
- TEX2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 5 straight road games; ATH has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob deGromTEX6.2strikeouts · ±2.9
Jacob deGrom · 6.2 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.4.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.0strikeouts · ±2.0
MacKenzie Gore · 6 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.9.
- Jacob LopezATH5.2strikeouts · ±2.5
Jacob Lopez · 5.2 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 4.4.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
TEX is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14TEX @ ATH3–8
- 2026-08-15TEX @ ATH5–3
- 2026-08-16TEX @ ATH2–5
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.3%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
64.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.5%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.49 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 108 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.2± 2.9high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.0± 2.0high
- Gage JumpATH5.7± 3.8medium
Hits
- Jeff McNeilATH1.2± 1.0high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.2± 1.3high
- Henry BolteATH1.1± 1.2high
Total bases
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.8± 1.9high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.7± 2.1high
- Lawrence ButlerATH1.6± 1.1high
RBIs
- Brian ServenATH0.9± 1.2medium
- Lawrence ButlerATH0.6± 0.7high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.8± 1.8high
- Kade MorrisATH3.8± 4.8low
- Gage JumpATH3.1± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
TEX
.720
OPS
◀
.718
.711
.319
OBP
.318
.316
4.35
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.02
5.41
Team ERA
4.15
▶4.29
1.50
WHIP
1.30
▶1.31
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Mon, Aug 31ATH
Athletics
62-97
vs62.3%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
82-79
ATH 37.7%win prob62.3% TEX
TEX 1478 · ATH 1403Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- GiantsBraves8/31 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsRays8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros8/31 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies8/31 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels8/31 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks8/31 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
