Park factor
96 total idx
Petco Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
PIT
PIT
64-69
PregameTue, 9:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
SD
SD
71-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPetco Park · San Diego, California
Line movement
200 snapshots
SD spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
SD no-vig %
52.1%
open 51.5% · +0.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Paul Skenes
SP · #30
9-11
W-L
3.95
ERA
1.14
WHIP
171
K
139.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsDET-4.1 IP3 ER5 K
@MIAL(9-11)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
@MILL(9-10)5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
Michael King
SP · #34
8-9
W-L
3.38
ERA
1.17
WHIP
128
K
149.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYML(8-9)6.2 IP2 ER4 K
@CLEW(8-8)6.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsHOUW(7-8)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread+1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+103 / -124
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesPIT leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take SD on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
SD vs PIT.
SD is 6-4 recently; PIT is 5-5.
61.0%
model · SD win prob
Recent form
- SD6–4+1.4
- PIT5–5+0.1
Situational
- SD1d restB2B
- PIT1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SD has 0 straight road games; PIT has 4.
Model angle
+8.1ppon SD
SD's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
- ▲Model confidence+3.1pp
- ▲Venue split+3.1pp
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.7strikeouts · ±2.5
Braxton Ashcraft · 5.7 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 6.2.
- Michael KingSD5.0strikeouts · ±1.1
Michael King · 5 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.9.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
SD is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-24PIT @ SD3–2
Line move
open -117→-120toward SD
The market has moved 0.6pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.1%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
60.7%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.4%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SD vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 123 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Paul SkenesPIT6.5± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.7± 2.5high
- Jared JonesPIT5.4± 2.2medium
Hits
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.3± 1.4high
- Brandon LowePIT1.1± 0.7high
- Nick GonzalesPIT1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.6± 3.4high
- Rafael Flores Jr.PIT2.0± 2.8high
- Brandon LowePIT1.8± 1.5high
RBIs
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD0.9± 1.3high
- Oneil CruzPIT0.7± 0.9high
- Brandon LowePIT0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Paul SkenesPIT2.9± 1.9high
- Walker BuehlerSD2.9± 2.7high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.7± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PIT
league avg
SD
.736
OPS
◀
.719
.706
.330
OBP
◀
.318
.316
4.93
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.29
4.26
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.99
1.32
WHIP
1.30
▶1.29
9.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 25PIT
Pirates
69-77
vs61.0%SD
SD★
Padres
80-73
PIT 39.0%win prob61.0% SD
SD 1537 · PIT 1485Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxMarlins8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RaysTigers8/25 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RockiesNationals8/25 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosYankees8/25 - 7:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsBlue Jays8/25 - 7:07 PM EDT
- BrewersMets8/25 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DodgersBraves8/25 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersWhite Sox8/25 - 7:40 PM EDT
- OriolesCardinals8/25 - 7:45 PM EDT
- GuardiansAngels8/25 - 9:38 PM EDT
- CubsDiamondbacks8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- TwinsAthletics8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesMariners8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RedsGiants8/25 - 9:45 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
